Friday, October 5, 2012

All votes outside of Washington, DC matter

I have done some statistical analysis on America's elections and found some interesting trends. is the spreadsheet.

  1. Texas is not as solid Republican as politicos believe it to be. With a voter turnout of 45% in 2008, the lowest in the nation, it would have taken only 5% of the population for it to have a majority Democratic vote. Given that Hispanics and African Americans are the groups that vote the least nation-wide, this is very possible that Texas could vote for Democrats for Congress and the Presidency in the near future if their turnout rose.
  2. Washington state, a "solid Democratic state" would need only 600,000 more votes to vote Republican which would bring voter turnout up to 70%. Most states would need smaller amounts than these
  3. Washington DC is the only place that has votes in the electoral college where changing affiliation is practically impossible because in order to increase the Republican votes would bring the total number of votes above the number of residents of voting age.
  4. Missouri will become the most unreliable state if their voter turnout increased because it would have needed less than a tenth of a percent of eligible voters to change from Obama to McCain.
  5. Arizona, the founder of the new voter discrimination laws, with only an increase of turnout of 4% of the population would vote Democrat. This is doable.
  6. Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Alabama, and Louisiana are the only Republican states that would need a voter turnout increase of over 10% of their populations to vote Democrat. All others are below the 10% mark.
  7. Vermont would need an increase of 25% of their population to vote Republican. Hawaii would need an increase of 20% of their eligible population. They are the most solid Democratic states (excluding DC)
  8. Democratic states in general tend to be larger than Republican states and would need a higher increase in turnout to vote Republican than most states.

The lesson to take away from this is that every vote counts. Even if your state hasn't voted differently for decades you should still vote for President, Congress, your Governor, and State Legislators because many key races in this country are very close and every vote can make a difference.

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