Monday, July 30, 2018

Bring back ARPA

I just learned this. DARPA was originally known as ARPA when it was founded in 1958 at the request of President Eisenhower. The D stands for defense, it was added in 1972 by Richard Nixon.

America was investing not just because it had military applications, we were investing because it improved society, because it made us a better country, because there are real tangible social benefits to living in an advanced society with opportunity for all. It's entire purpose was to advance the frontier of science with high-risk projects across all fields. This is when ARPANET was invented.

What this means is that the Internet was not invented solely for the military, it was invented for the sake of science, discovery, opportunity, economic growth, and more. Military wasn't the main focus. This is the America we were for a short period of time, this is the America we will be again.

The 1960s were also the period of time with the highest economic growth in American history.

In 1973 DARPA was dedicated to only programs with short-term benefits directly meant for the military. Our GDP growth has never been as high as the 1960s since then.

Wednesday, July 25, 2018

2018 elections

The US Senate is a dire tossup this year, and the House will almost certainly go Red, but this is the last time the Democrats can pick up enough Governorships to have a majority of Governorships in the country and they will also have veto power over redistricting plans for Congress and their State Legislatures for over 10 years from now. This is where money and votes can make a gigantic impact this year, the impact of which will be directly felt until 2030. Simply being able to veto gerrymandered maps will make a gigantic impact for a generation to come. This November will determine the outcome.

There are no fewer than 8 easy Governor pickups for this November. This is our last chance to get a majority of Governorships until 2022. Go ! Governors have the ability to veto unfair redistricting maps. Get Democratic Governors this year, get the House of Representatives and numerous legislature pickups in 2022. Otherwise, we might not get control of Congress again in the next decade. The two most important easy pickups this year are in Michigan and Wisconsin, so we can pick up a bunch of seats there. Florida and Ohio are both toss ups, which together send 43 Representatives to Congress, almost 10% of the House. Between Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, and Ohio, the winners of these blue/purple states will sign off on the redistricting of 65 seats of the House of Representatives, 15% of Congress.

The 8 states Democrats can fairly easily get the Governor's mansion are Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Vermont, and Wisconsin.
Potential New Democratic Governorships


If Democrats win this year in these 8 states, we will have a very good shot at taking the House of Representatives and several state legislatures in 2022. The Democratic Party is likely to take a majority of the vote in every House election until the Republican Party becomes less extreme, given how the Democrats have a stance far more in line with most Americans on almost every issue.

We will break Republican Trifectas in Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, and if we get lucky and win both toss ups we will break the trifectas of both Ohio and Florida. We will gain trifectas in Illinois by gaining the governorship.
Broken Republican Trifectas

We must pick up two seats in the Colorado State Senate this year in order to gain a Trifecta.

We need to pick up one seat in the Connecticut State Senate in order to gain a Trifecta.

We need 6 seats in the Iowa State Senate and 10 seats in the Iowa State House of Representatives, along with the governorship to make a Trifecta. It will not be easy, but it is doable.

We could take a trifecta in Maine by flipping one seat in the State Senate. Gaining the governorship as well (which is likely) will make a Democratic Trifecta.

We can gain the Minnesota Senate this year by taking one seat. The House will be more difficult where there is a 77-56 Republican lead.

We can gain a Trifecta in Nevada by maintaining both houses and taking the Governorship.

New Hampshire will need 4 pickups out of a 24 seat Senate, and 43 pickups in the House out of a 400 seat chamber.

Gaining the governorship of New Mexico will deliver a Trifecta.

We need to gain the Senate in New York, only one seat flipping will deliver a Democratic Trifecta.

Maintaining the Governorship of Pennsylvania will allow us to gain a trifecta in 2022 by having fair legislative maps.

Republicans have a 2 seat majority in both chambers in Virginia. We could make a Democratic Trifecta in Virginia this year.

We MUST maintain our majority in Washington State.

We could potentially gain the Wisconsin State Senate, we only need to pick up two more seats to accomplish that. Gaining the Governorship as well will mean that in 2022 we only need to pick up the State Assembly to gain a Trifecta.

If we succeed in this, the map of trifectas in 2019 will look like this, dark colors are currently held, light colors are pickups from gaining governorships and legislatures.

Potential new Trifecta Map

These 10 new Democratic Trifectas and 2 new Republican Trifectas which are fairly easy to get will have a direct effect on 90 House districts for the Democrats and 19 House districts for the Republicans. 74 House Districts will be put in a position where they will now need to have some agreement between both parties as opposed to one party unilaterally choosing the boundaries for legislative and congressional districts, which usually ends up hurting the other party significantly. These numbers will of course change slightly because of the new 2020 Census, but they won't change too significantly.

Takeaway message:

The big message of this post is that yes, the Federal Government is going to stay in the hands of the Republicans. We might be able to barely break the Trifecta by getting a one seat majority in the Senate, but this is going to be very difficult. The big battle this year is in the states. Democrats can make huge substantial gains in Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The biggest state we must defend is Washington State, because the trifecta hangs by a thread. The outcomes of the elections in these 16 states will have massive implications for the outcomes of elections for the next 20 years. This is where people who have money to donate need to be putting their money, this is where people who wish to volunteer need to put their time. This is a huge battle this year for the soul of America, let's hope that the side of equality, opportunity, and freedom wins.

On top of this, there are elections going on in cities and counties across America right now. Vote in your local elections, because that is where great leaders begin.

Remember also that in 1994 a 33 year old man was elected to the State Senate in the South Side of Chicago. he served for 10 years and then became the Senator for Illinois in the 2004 election (his second run for Congress), and in 2008 Barack Obama became the President of the United States.

Your State legislature is the major source for Federal politicians, and your governor and other state executives ultimately determines how the elections of your state are run (along with the Federal Courts, but those cases can be delayed by 5 years or more.). They determine if polling places are easy to get to, if you have mail in voting, how long polls are open, whether your state uses ranked voting or first past the post, and the outcomes of these elections determine massively important issues regarding our health care, education, infrastructure, net neutrality, access to natural areas, environment, and many many more issues. All of this is at stake in November. Every part of this matters.

Remember to vote.

Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Democrats should take on Multi-Level Marketing

I am nearing the end of my job hunt right now, I will be receiving a large dataset to train my algorithm on tomorrow, and if I do well today will be the last day I will be unemployed against my will for the last day in my life.

But, one thing which has gotten in the way in my networking has been network marketing scams. I have been contacted by Amway, Powur, and several others as well over the last year. They are very demanding, and because they are not upfront about what is going on, and how some of them convince you that you are starting a business, they can sometimes be overbearing in their methods. They force people to pay in money from the beginning, and most people never get money from the scam they are peddling.

On top o this, there business model is a pyramid scheme, plain and simple. They say they are not a pyramid scheme and say some bullshit when praying on people who are down on their luck, along with a lot of other untrue statements, but at the core of it, that is all they are, from the top to the bottom. They are illegal, and the FTC is supposed to regulate them, but Republican presidents have helped Amway expand, such as in 2005 to China (New York Times) as a condition to join the World Trade Organization. The Republican Party is peddling businesses which peddle business practices which are illegal in order for companies to join the WTO. It doesn't get much more corrupt than that.

Doing research on companies such as Amway is very, very difficult. If you try to look up connections between Amway and Obama the Internet is simply full of articles with Amway trying to convince you that Obama is in on it as well, that they are bipartisan. If you look a little deeper you will find a not-so-subtle hint  that President Obama is not in favor of Amway, with how he hid the logo with a giant American flag at the Amway center in Orlando, Florida. You don't hide the names of companies you are proud of.

That statement, you don't hide the name of companies you are proud of is very true and the opposite of what recruiters do. Once an MLM becomes well-known enough, they fill the Internet with bogus websites which try to make them look like legitimate businesses, they have people give them glowing reviews, when in reality they are just scamming people, and if you look up their name with a clear head you will realize they are the worst of the worst.

This has a deeper meaning for the Republican Party as a whole. The Bush family is tied to Amway, with W speaking at their ceremony in China in 2016, and HW spoke to them in Japan when he was President. Gerald R. Ford was at the founding of Amway. Donald Trump went so far as to hide the veil and appoint Betsy De Vos as Secretary of Education. The Amway corporation is as much a part of the Republican Party as the Koch Brothers. The De Vos Family has almost no connection to the Democratic Party.

Regardless of how many political donation they make to the Republican Party, what Amway is doing is illegal, and they need to be shut down and be forced to give every single dollar back to every single individual they have scammed. Once the Democratic Party comes back to power with a trifecta in 2021, which given Trump's approval rating is definitely a possibility, we need to fully prosecute them for their criminal actions to the fullest extent of the law. That is the job of the Court system, the Department of Justice, and the President.