Saturday, May 11, 2013

The Future of Strauss-Howe

The Strauss-Howe Generational Theory is one of my favorite theories in history. It hypothesizes that America's history flows in cycles, and the dominant attitudes of generations are effected by those cycles. It was hypothesized in the 1990s and it predicted a crisis starting between 2005 and 2010 following an identified pattern, and it was correct on that count.

First, I think it will continue over the next 130 years, which means the rest of my life, and everyone reading it unless my blog is read in a hundred years, will follow this theory.

  • 2005-2025: Crisis, unemployment, reform of the financial industry, revolutions abroad, immigration reform, environment, government reform.
  • 2025-2045: High, high employment, economic stability.
  • 2045-2065: Awakening, due to the amount of oil left in the ground an environmental awakening takes place. People notice changes in climate which makes the environmental movement gain ground.
  • 2065-2085: Unraveling, oil starts to rise in price and people panic.
  • 2085-2105: Crisis, the global oil supply runs out and our infrastructure can't handle the lack of oil available. New energy sources are developed and implemented.
  • 2105-2125: High, creation of a sustainable economy, America has energy independence.
  • 2125-2145: Awakening, I don't know what will happen at this point, it is too far in the future to predict. Anything is possible.
Given the money in politics and the large number of people who deny the scientific evidence, large scale action from governments to fight climate change seems unlikely to me. In fifty years it is going to be very clear that oil is not sustainable, and we need alternatives imminently. Unfortunately it will be too late to avoid a crisis which will exist when I and other people of my generation are dying and our children are retiring. My grandchildren and great-grandchildren's generations who will be born in about 55-60 years will be the hardest hit.

The awakening in the early 22nd century could be (if many science fiction stories like Star Trek were right) could be the discovery of economically and demographically useful space travel. If this happens than it will be a gigantic awakening in terms of our relationship with the Universe. In this future the unraveling from 2165-2185 will be due to

This post brought to you by the stimulating music of Joly Braga Santos who defeated a three day blogger's block.

Also, Time predicts that my generation (Millenials) are the new greatest generation, which is amazing because that is exactly what Strauss-Howe predicted.,9171,2143001,00.html

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