Sunday, September 30, 2012

How Europe will get out of the austerity crisis

This current austerity crisis in Europe is hurting their economy. When I look at their economies, since austerity began in 2009, unemployment has risen across the European Union, decreasing consumer spending, hurting the economy and all businesses big and small. (Source: Public Data) I am going to say what I think will drive Europe out of this crisis and back towards investment and prosperity. In the meantime decreasing debts, which I see as a minor issue at most. The debt of these countries was blown out of proportion by economic neoconservatives like Merkel, News Corportation, and Sarkozy, among others.

  1. Germany will vote in a left-wing government next year in September 2013 which will change the course of history. Merkel's push for divestment has hurt the economy of Europe and she will not be ranked highly in the future. Peter Steinbruck will be the next Chancellor of Germany. Most of the CDU's wins were by small margins: http:/s/ so seeing a big flip with Merkel's misleadership over the past two years is possible. This will end a lot of pressure on Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece.
  2. Europeans will vote for a liberal government in European Parliament in 2014 following their dissatisfaction with austerity and losing their jobs which will move the EPP (right-wing) to a minority and S&D (left-wing) to become the largest party in Parliament.
  3. The European Parliament will propose an amendment to their constitution which will do the following to resolve the apparent issues of the European Union:
    1. Banking regulations and insurance will be union-wide to avoid future bank runs from nations like Greece. (Source: Planet Money from NPR)
    2. The regulations on debt will remain, but they will be required to cut social services last and raise taxes first. Looking at America's history this is clearly the most economical viable way. The fastest growing economies in American history were during the 1950s when our highest tax rate was above 70% and the 1990s when Clinton and Congress ran a balanced budget and taxes were higher than they are now on the rich.
    3. There will be an investigation into bribery in the government participating most in this fiasco (Germany, Spain, Italy, Greece) which will come out with a lot of evidence to prosecute big companies, banks, and important politicians. Elections will happen across Europe. People will vote in better governments. Companies will be liable for bribery across the European Union.
    4. The ability to form small businesses will be easier in the nations in Europe where it is lowest (which funny enough are Greece and Spain which will stimulate their economies. After decreasing barriers of entry in Belarus, their rank went from 98 in 2009 to 7 in 2010 and their GDP growth rate from 0.2% in 2009 to 7.6% in 2010. This is a crucial part of having a competitive economy. There is a clear correlation between the two. This will also help the distribution of wealth become more equitable, which will allow more people to enter into the middle class in Europe which will drive consumer spending higher and make a stronger economy. But it has to start with people having the ability to create their own businesses and make enough money to be comfortable. I just started a small Private Investigating Agency, so I am a small business owner, and like millions of other people I know exactly the level of benefits this brings to individuals, and to the economies that are driven by trade.
  4. The EU will still exist, corruption will be less, and their economy will recover. With less bribery through enforcement of already existing laws, their copyright laws (which are the worst in the world) will liberalize, their banking regulations will strengthen the economy to prevent the outflow of cash that came from Greece to Germany and France, and it will happen in the next five years.

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