The situation becomes even worse when you look at the following dimensions:
• Israeli-Russian relations
• Israeli-Ukrainian relations
• History of Hamas
Israeli-Russian relations are close. They have a military agreement between themselves. They trade military equipment. There is mutual visa-free access. There have been numerous times when Israel has initially voted in Russia’s interests regarding their invasion of Ukraine, before the United States has intervened. Israel has also been reluctant to sanction Russia, which means it is likely acting as a hole in the wall of sanctions created by democracies to isolate and topple Putin.
Despite Ukraine having a Jewish President and Prime Minister and having one of the largest Jewish populations in the world, there doesn’t appear to be any solidarity between Israel and Ukraine without the United States pushing Israel to support Ukraine, and then they only do so reluctantly as they give as little support as possible without severely damaging relations with NATO members.
Israel should therefore be considered a Russian ally.
It also becomes obvious from this analysis that Israel does not actually care about Jewish lives outside of Israel. Their reluctance to saves lives in Ukraine proves this statement.
There are reports from Israeli officials about how Israel actively supported and strengthened radicals in Palestine in the 1970s in order to counter the relatively moderate Fatah. Israel aided and abetted the Muslim Brotherhood in Gaza in order to reduce the influence of Fatah. This turned into Hamas. Hamas is convenient for the Israeli government because it prevents the Palestinian people from having a party for their liberation as they are constantly under threat from Hamas. Hamas is not considered a terrorist organization by Russia, but it is considered a terrorist organization by many democracies. It’s major source of financial support, that we know about, is through Qatar.
But then there is an even more disturbing part of all of this. We know for a fact the government of Israel has close ties to Moscow. We know for a fact that Russia has close ties to Hamas. We also know that over the last few months Netanyahu’s popularity has been plummeting and he has been looking at potentially being removed from office due to his decades of corruption.
Isn’t it convenient that Hamas attacked Israel just as Netanyahu’s political future was in peril? Isn’t it convenient that this happens as Russia is committing war crimes in Ukraine, diverting attention from the suffering of Ukraine?
It is convenient for Russia, Likud, and Hamas for this to happen right now.
I also do not believe that Israel will topple Hamas. Now they certainly could if they chose to, but they have focused mostly on leveling apartment buildings, hospitals, and refugee camps as opposed to targeting military installations while banning Palestinians from fleeing as refugees. It allows the far-right Israeli government to continue their genocide against the Palestinian people, and it is in Likud’s best interest for this to occur. It will improve their chances of winning the next election and reduce the chance of Netanyahu being removed from power.
It also is against Likud’s interest to fully remove Hamas from power. If Likud was to remove Hamas from power, there will be two potential solutions for the Gaza crisis which they have started. Either the one state solution occurs, and Palestinians will get the right to vote in Israeli elections which will mean the end of Apartheid. Or Palestine will be unified again under a government formed primarily by Fatah which will be supported by most of the world. Either of these could potentially remove the existential threat of Hamas which I believe increases support for Likud and other far right parties in Israel. If Palestine started to be recognized by most democracies, which a Fatah government is likely to do, then Israel will eventually lose access to that territory.
For these reasons I doubt Likud will remove Hamas from power. They will kill as many Palestinians as they can until it becomes obvious they are committing genocide and then they will stop and Hamas will remain in power. This will remain the status quo which is good for the incumbent government of Israel. The threat of Hamas will remain in place, and the stability which keeps the far right in control of Israel will remain. They will continue to move Israel further from the west and closer to Russia, as they have been doing for 20 years.
For these reasons, the actions of The United States to support Likud is going to remove Israel from America’s sphere of influence. Fewer and fewer countries are supporting Israel at the United Nations. All it takes is one United States administration which doesn’t kiss their boots and Israel will be very alone. Every other member of the Security Council opposes Israeli settlements. Only the United States stands in the way now of Palestine getting full membership in the United Nations.
The other existential threat to Likud which could start as a result of the defeat of Hamas is the eventual creation of a one state solution. If they lose power and Israel and Palestine merge into one state it will never again be possible for a far right Zionist organization to gain power in a unified Israel/Palestine. This will be the creation of a relatively moderate pluralistic state with no room for extremists like Likud and Hamas which deliberately target civilians.
Likud needs the status quo. They need a two state non-solution with no citizenship for Palestinians, and they need the existence of an existential threat to Israel in order to keep their large military which enables them to go about their extremist ideas to ethnically cleanse the region for the creation of a White Jewish ethnostate. We know this doesn’t have anything to do with any Jewish lives matter belief either given their reluctance to assist Ukraine militarily during the invasion by Russia.
We know this is because Likud is a racist white nationalist party which exists solely to create a white ethnostate in Israel.
If Likud goes far enough the possibility of a boycott of Israel by Europe becomes possible. I believe that as time goes on more young people will support pluralism in the country, and the blanket support for Likud in the west will dissolve. The invasion of Gaza today is a gasp for breath from a morally bankrupt party which is drowning in its corruption.
The way forward is for the United States to stop supporting white supremacy in the region and to attempt to broker a peace deal for a real solution. We need a President like Jimmy Carter who won’t simply cater to every whim of an extremist group but advocate for peace in the region. We need to stop giving Likud a free pass for any genocidal action they choose to do and instead work on creating a framework for peace.
What gets even worse than this unfortunate reality is that it will possibly be Putin, not the United States or a European head of state who will broker a peace agreement between Israel and Hamas. It is impossible that Russia was not talking to both sides before the attacks. It will provide many benefits to Russia, it will increase their credibility and make them seem like reasonable peace makers to people whose memories are short. It is possibly the only country which both Hamas and Israel will both listen to. Its interests are tied in with that of Likud, not that of Israel, and it will be easy for Likud, Hamas, and Russia to come up with an agreement which serves all of their interests.
There has been a lot of discussion by authoritarians and supporters to create a new world order separate from that of NATO. While in terms of economic terms they don’t come even close, and they are significantly smaller when it comes to military power, if they can start brokering peace agreements which benefit themselves without benefitting people the short sighted in the world will see the United States and European Union as weak while the authoritarian countries seem strong.
They know they cannot win a military confrontation. They know they cannot win on economic grounds alone. The covert creation of conflicts like this and then providing solutions which help themselves while harming ordinary people however is beneficial to Russia and China’s image abroad.
President Biden offers a unique opportunity to further this goal. Biden has never been good at foreign policy. His blundering in Afghanistan, refusal to meet Ukrainian demands for aid, “pivot to Asia” bullshit, and the rest of his failures in foreign policy make him relatively easy to play. On October 17th he decided he did not want to send more long-range missiles to Ukraine. This crisis however is playing into all of Biden’s weaknesses. His refusal to recognize rights of Palestinians is isolating to many of his voters. This makes it more likely that Donald Trump can win next year. His refusal to send sufficient support for Ukraine weakens NATO, and American security. His blunder in Afghanistan was a failure of historic proportions. Only Nixon can match his incompetency at foreign relations, assuming Nixon wasn’t a communist spy given his negotiations with the North Vietnamese in 1968. Biden is singularly focused on domestic economics and he does not spend the time or energy to study foreign relations. His foreign policy advisors are clearly poorly informed and Biden has made major mistakes in every foreign crisis he has been confronted with. This window of opportunity is too good for Putin and Netanyahu to pass up, so they are taking full advantage of Biden with this war.
When it comes to European politics, protests in France are common and Macron’s popularity is down. Germans are incorrectly blaming Scholz for high natural gas prices. The United Kingdom is stuck with a pompous, incompetent, foolish prat as Prime Minister who represents everything that is wrong with British high society. Justin Trudeau of Canada is flat out stating Canada also stands with Israel. There is no leader in NATO today with enough domestic support and population to have the power to reverse the situation in the region. There is no vision from the most powerful men in the world.
On top of that Biden follows a long line of Presidents who consistently fail to bring NATO closer together than a military alliance. The lack of a clear unified statement and regular meetings which include the United States creates a fractured alliance by default which is relatively easy for our adversaries to infiltrate through their obvious agents like Boris Johnson, Donald Trump, and Victor Orban.
There are no other major world leaders except for Russia who will be able to bring the conflict back to a stalemate. There is no real incentive for the Israeli government to remove Hamas.
I think Russia will play a significant role in mitigating this conflict. They will maintain their allies Hamas and Likud in the region. Likud will appear victorious and Hamas will remain in power. This bloody and pointless war will be just another step at maintaining the status quo. It will weaken the United States, drain military support from Ukraine, and once again make democracy look like a flawed system.
It is clearly a carefully orchestrated attack not on Israel, but on the free world. We cannot fall for their trap. I fear we will.
Sorry, there will be nothing better at the end of this chapter of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Everything about this invasion is just awful.
References
https://web.archive.org/web/20090926212507/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123275572295011847.html
https://www.rferl.org/a/israel-hamas-invasion-russian-role-notte-interview-iran/32629626.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/17/us/politics/biden-ukraine-atacms-weapons.html
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