Stidmatt's Views: Status of the 2020 election as of February 2019

Monday, March 4, 2019

Status of the 2020 election as of February 2019

This is proving to be one of the most crowded presidential primaries in a very long time. Only paying attention to governors and Senators (because those are the ones with an actual possibility of winning) we have:

Cory Booker
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
Amy Klobuchar
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren

6% of the Senate, and 12.8% of Democratic caucusing candidates are in the race already. Let's look at historical perspective of likely winners in previous elections:

2020: 6 candidates with a possibility (6 senators)
2016: 5 candidates with a possibility
2008: 7 candidates with a possibility (6 senators, 1 governor)
2004: 5 candidates (4 senators, 1 governor)
2000: 2 candidates (2 senators)
1992: 6 candidates (4 senators, 2 governors)
1988: 6 candidates (4 senators, 2 governors)
1984: 7 candidates (5 senators, 1 governor, 1 vice president)
1980: 4 candidates (1 senator, 2 governor, 1 president)
1976: 10 candidates (6 senators, 4 governors)

The 1972 primary only included 31 states, making it a fundamentally different system from what we have today.

In terms of the timing, this is about the same time that candidates announced in 2008, the last comparable year for the Democratic Party,so this is a pretty normal round.

Now for candidate policies:
Health care: