End this epidemic recession now

America is currently spiraling into a recession, and we need to have effective policy as soon as possible to end it.

This recession is a classic demand side recession. People are staying home, cutting their spending, which is going to cause both deflation and a reduction in GDP. This is going to inevitably cause layoffs, which is going to deeply harm the economy.

The key now is to replace the consumer spending as fast as possible so that businesses can keep people employed, so that individuals can continue to spend money to keep the economy moving. The easiest way to do that right now is by simply sending money out to everybody as fast as possible to counteract our declining demand.

This is why Congress should pass an immediate temporary basic income to every American right now. Every American should get a check, $1000 or $2000, either deposited to their bank account or sent to them as a physical check as soon as possible.

Democrats are wrong that the check should be means tested. First of all, every means tested program will inevitably miss people who should have received benefits. 75% of American households make under $100,000 per year, and our annual median household income is $52,657. The majority of people will greatly benefit from this policy. The key right now to preventing a depression (3 or more quarters of economic decline) is speed.

Source: https://personalfinancedata.com/income-percentile-calculator/?min_age=18&max_age=100&income=40000#results

Republicans are wrong in having it be done as handouts to already well off companies. This will not help our economy.

But, even more important than the economy is our lives. We need to have access to as many tests as possible, and be able to get as many people cured from coronavirus as possible, as soon as possible. The economy is far less important than protecting human lives.

There will be more opportunities to fight inequality in bigger ways soon. The biggest thing will be through making a more progressive tax code, and that is something we need to do, but right now Congress should have only two priorities, and that is to ensure that the Coronavirus epidemic ends as soon as possible, and that our economy is protected. Long term structural macroeconomic policies which we should have focused on a few years ago will need to wait.

End this recession now.

Absentee voting

Across the United States, millions of Americans are going to stand in long lines this year to vote for President, Senators, their Representative, and state and local officials across the country. This has been a tactic used by the Republican party in particular over the last few years to reduce the number of people who are able to vote in areas which primarily vote for Democrats, particularly African Americans. This significantly impacted the 2016 election, and helped Trump win slim majorities (by the official count) in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which gave him the Presidency.

It doesn't have to be this way.

Most states in the United States allow voters to vote absentee for no reason, simply by filling out a form with their county auditor. The ballot is then sent to them in the mail, and then their vote is counted. This can increases voter turnout by 3% once other factors are taken into account. In states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Florida, this can make a significant difference in the overall election.

Every American who lives in a green state should register to vote absentee as soon as possible.

The easy way to solve this problem is if the Democratic Party does a deliberate information campaign to teach voters about their rights about absentee voting in every state as soon as possible. Every county Democratic Party, and every candidate for every office should have absentee voting registration forms at every event in every green state. Getting voters registered to vote absentee whenever possible will significantly reduce one significant voter disenfranchisement tactic the Republican Party has been using over the last decade to ensure that the voice of the American people is heard.

I am 27 years old, born during the twilight of George H.W. Bush's presidency. In my entire life the Republican Party has only won the popular for the Presidency once. People need to have their voices heard and the easiest way to do that is to have as many people vote absentee as possible. Millions of Americans, myself included, rely on this to guarantee that our health care continues. Until the Republican Party removes the abolition of the Affordable Care Act from their platform this is going to be the biggest issue for me. The other big issue are the Geneva Protocol violations that the Republican Party has been doing with their control of ICE over the last few years. We need to improve these problems as much as possible, as soon as possible.

As long as one party campaigns to significantly harm the lives of Americans, I will be partisan.

The easiest way to guarantee that Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States is to make sure people are able to vote so that he can undo a lot of the damage which Trump has done over the last 3 years. The easiest way to make sure people are able to vote is to get as many voters registered to vote absentee in as many places as possible over the next 8 months.

Every state legislator, governor, member of congress, and local official in this country should do everything in their power this year to get as many people voting absentee as possible. Simply expanding people's rights and letting people know about the rights which they already have will make a tremendous difference this year, which will help us flip critical Senate seats, and ensure that Donald Trump is a one term president. the sooner he is out of office, the sooner the State of New York will prosecute him for his financial crimes, and the sooner the people of New York can get the tax money they are owed. It will allow us to end the civil liberty violations on the border, and expand freedoms in so many other ways in the 2020s.

But only if people are able to vote.

https://www.nonprofitvote.org/documents/2011/03/pew-effect-of-non-precint-voting-reforms.pdf/
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2018/07/11/453319/increasing-voter-participation-america/

Updated Presidential Rankings

Ranking of American Presidents

1. Lyndon Baines Johnson - For his efforts on combating poverty, willingness to lead the country with his bully pulpit, and signing the civil rights act. His Great Society lifted millions out of poverty. No president comes close to his astonishing human rights record. Vietnam escalated under his presidency but he did everything in his power to end the conflict. He had the ability to get people to do what had to be done. His biggest blunder was not letting Americans know that Nixon was committing treason.
2. Abraham Lincoln - for his effort in keeping the United States together and the Emancipation Proclamation. He respected the constitution with the suspension of Habeas Corpus. He didn’t free slaves in the North.
3. Franklin Delano Roosevelt - For his efforts and success in setting a strong foundation for the 20th century economy. He was responsible for the incarceration of thousands of Japanese Americans.
4. John Fitzgerald Kennedy - For his efforts towards science and combating poverty, and the second best human rights record in our history after his successor, but blundering foreign policy
5. Barack Obama - For his efforts towards universal health care, ending the Iraq war, and standing up to warmongerers, improving education, environmental regulation, he harmed Social security benefits, improved financial regulation, second most progressive social issues president in history, opened travel to Cuba
6. John Quincy Adams - For his economic wisdom, respect of Native Americans, establishing colleges, abolitionism, and expanding infrastructure
7. George Washington - for his formation of treaties and respect of Native Americans. He ranks lower for signing the Fugitive Slave Act.
8. Thomas Jefferson - For his exploration of the American west, preserving trade in the Mediterranean, and diplomacy
9. Dwight David Eisenhower - For his diplomacy, protection of the economy, and prophetic farewell speech. He set up the foreign policy blunders of the next decade.
10. Harry Truman - For his continuation of building the foundation for the 20th century his predecessor built. He is ranked lower for his dropping of the bombs. He helped escalate the Cold War.
11. Warren G. Harding - for supporting the 8 hour work day, child labor laws, opposition to lynching, and good neighbor policy
12. Benjamin Harrison - For his advocacy of civil rights, reformation of the civil service, and
13. Ulysses S. Grant - For his continuation of Reconstruction and supporting equal rights. Corruption was rife in his cabinet.
14. Theodore Roosevelt - For his valiant efforts in preserving America’s treasures and national parks, he is ranked lower for his interventions in Latin America.
15. William McKinley - For his advocacy of human rights at home and abroad
16. Martin Van Buren - his cowardice in face of anti-Mormonism which he opposed demotes him, he kept peace with Mexico, advocated free trade, and opposed slavery
17. James Earl Carter - for his strong efforts towards peace around the world and attempts to gain energy independence for America. However, he signed the establishment of the NSA.
18. James Madison - he opposed the national bank which hurt our economy, he started the War of 1812, and protected Native Americans.
19. Zachary Taylor - For his attempts to set up the Western states as free states
20. James Monroe - He started the Seminole Wars, did the Missouri compromise meaning each slave state had to be matched with a free state, his expansionist Monroe doctrine,
21. Chester Alan Arthur - For his signing of the Pendleton Act which put rules against favors, he opposed Mormon polygamy (bad), opposed racism against the Chinese (good), and favored better relations with Native Americans.
22. John Adams - His largest accomplishment was the Alien and Sedition Acts
23. Bill Clinton - he passed no great laws and he signed the Commodities Futures Modernization Act, DOMA, DADT, and failed to pass meaningful health care reform. But he balanced the budget and didn’t hurt Medicare, which prevents him from falling further. He was led by pollsters and didn’t lead, he followed.
24. James K. Polk - He was extremely expansionist,
25. Woodrow Wilson - For his breaking his promise on World War I, anti-German sentiment, his support of the League of Nations keeps him from falling farther.
26. Gerald Ford - environmental regulations, strengthened AMTRAK, pardoned Nixon
27. Grover Cleveland - For racism, opposition to labor, and imperialism
28. Herbert Hoover - For his obsession with the deficit, protectionist policies, and limited response to the great depression.
29. Calvin Coolidge - His small government rhetoric and lack of leadership made his Presidency unsuccessful albeit popular
30. William Howard Taft - for his attacks on President Roosevelt’s environmental policy
31. Richard Nixon - EPA, improved relations with China, set up AMTRAK, worked against the Vietnam peace agreement which was treason. He entered office and destroyed the economy with deflationary monetary policy.
32. John Tyler - For his refusal to form a national bank in the face of an economic collapse
33. Franklin Pierce - For his unsuccessful compromise with the Kansas-Nebraska Act
34. Rutherford B. Hayes - For ending Reconstruction
35. Andrew Johnson - For his opposition to Reconstruction
36. Millard Fillmore - For passing the Fugitive Slave Act
37. James Buchanan - For his unwillingness to use his power to keep the Union together
38. Andrew Jackson - For his deportation of Native Americans, and his fiscal policy which crashed the economy.
39. Ronald Reagan - For negotiating with terrorists to hold Americans hostage until he was President, selling arms to Nicaraguan terrorists, attack on Grenada, and deregulation of the financial sector. As soon as he entered office he destroyed the economy with deflationary economic policy. His negotiations with the Mujahideen in Afghanistan betrayed America, making his administration a literal state sponsor of terrorism.
40. George H.W. Bush - For vetoing every good bill that came his way and using the United States military to his benefit (an oilman used the US military to defend a major oil exporter with dreadful human rights, I’m sure there is no conflict of interest.)
41. George W. Bush - For attacking Iraq, destabilizing the financial markets, the PATRIOT ACT, No Child Left Behind Act,
42. Donald Trump - Made America’s tax code more regressive, constant racist rhetoric, first President to restrict American travel to another country in decades, trade war with China, shutting down the government because Democrats won’t give him everything he wants.

Elizabeth Warren 2020

Roosevelt and Truman refused to prosecute the corporate CEOs who illegally use labor from the Holocaust. Johnson refused to prosecute Nixon for sabotaging his Vietnam peace talks. Carter covered up everything the Nixon administration did by not prosecuting the crimes he committed. Clinton refused to prosecute the Reagan/Bush administration for the Iran Contra Affair and Iran Hostage Crisis. Obama refused to prosecute the Bush administration for the 9/11 commission reports (I'll write more about that scandal later) and refused to prosecute states for violating the Voting Rights Act.

Democrats have a long history stretching back as long as the party has existed in its current form of playing nice and then getting defeated through illegal behavior in the next election through Gerrymandering, corruption, and back dealing by the Republican Party. Trying to appease brainwashed voters never works, and refusing to stand up for what is right when it comes to the quality of our government hurts every American.

Today Elizabeth Warren announced that she will set up a commission to prosecute the current members of the Trump Administration for violating the law. I believe very strongly in equal justice under the law, and it shouldn't matter who you are in the United States, if you are on American soil the law must apply to you as equally as every other person (to use the word the 14th amendment uses) on American soil. This doesn't matter if you are an average citizen, a foreigner, or even the President of the United States, all three should have the law apply to them equally. The President needs to be impeached first in order to have the full brunt of the law apply to them, but after they are removed from office they are just another citizen, and the crimes they committed in office are the second they are no longer President can be prosecuted. Likewise, if someone is on American soil, or an American military base, and they are accused of a crime, the full laws of the United States apply to them, including the protections in the Bill of Rights. Those civil liberties do not stop anyone who is guilty from being prosecuted, they only protect the innocent from being wrongly imprisoned, when they are followed.

If President Elizabeth Warren is going to use the full power of the Presidency to hold the Trump administration accountable for their crimes, which no President has ever done before, and every President since Washington has sworn to do, then just imagine what is going to happen to States which violate the Voting Rights Act, police forces which repeatedly violate civil liberties through excessive force, and every single person who is currently held by ICE without a trial, which the 14th amendment and 5th amendment together very clearly show is completely unconstitutional.

Elizabeth Warren alone has a life long career of protecting the weakest in society in ways which really do matter. Millions of Americans have been able to get their money back due to the law enforcement through the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. She hits the right balance between stating how she will use the power of the Presidency to make a more just government, but she also has no desire to waste time if a bill isn't likely to pass through the Senate. While I of course wish we could just go make an initiative which would significantly strike at two major issues confronting our country and make it pass, I literally worked on the most progressive proposal I've ever seen, which was Initiative 732, I also learned from that the importance of building coalitions to pass legislation. Dead legislation does nothing. Compromised legislation is like a compromised vehicle.

So, we should have a President who will do everything she can to reverse all of the executive orders Trump has passed over the last 3 years to make America more just. We need a President who has a 30 year long proven track record of strategically moving forward proposals which pass and then significantly help people. We need someone who moves strategically, but who also never claims that we can't dream big and believes that we should make a world which brings the greatest good to the greatest number of people.

I have never seen a candidate in my life who more closely matches my values than Elizabeth Warren who will also successfully make a major difference by using her political power as President in a way to maximize good. If she becomes the nominee I know she will be elected. She will almost certainly use her candidacy to stump for Senate candidates in vulnerable states, which she did in 2012, raising over $1 million for Senate candidates, before she was even elected. You cannot say the same about any other Senate candidate. In 2016 Politico ran a piece Did Donald Trump Just Hand the Senate to Elizabeth Warren? when she had only been in office for 4 years. No other Freshman Senator could do that in a political piece. It is basically common knowledge among politicos that Bernie Sanders was late in announcing his candidacy in 2016 because he was expecting Elizabeth Warren to run and he would have backed her in that situation. No other politician has so much respect from their colleagues to the point that their allies will delay their candidacy to the highest office in the land because of so much trust.

In 8 years as Senator she has sponsored 9 pieces of legislation which have become law according to Govtrack.

Sanders has only sponsored 7 laws in 30 years.

Her values are pure, her strategy is proven, and I fully believe that if Senator Elizabeth Warren is elected she will have the balance between being effective in her strategy, while having a moral compass which points true, which will make America a more free country. With some major executive wins in the first two years that will give us the momentum to win the Senate in 2022, giving the brain behind the CFPB the first Democratic Trifecta in over a decade. I believe her strategy of making strategic wins against a Republican Senate will work.

I want to see that trifecta more than anything else in politics, and it is only going to happen if we have a President in 2021 who will use her strategy to mobilize voters through as many meaningful victories as possible. She will continue to stump for and support Democratic candidates for the Senate which will work yet again.

If that wasn't enough, Senator Warren endorses a carbon tax, which is known to economists as the most effective way to fight global warming. Sanders has shifted his stance and isn't talking about carbon taxes as much as he used to. Carbon taxes are actually not that controversial among candidates, as this Washington Post survey shows, Sanders and Gabbard are the only candidates who oppose it.

If you want a candidate who supports carbon taxes, ending the electoral college, and ending the filibuster, then there is really only one candidate you should vote for.


Elizabeth Warren deserves your vote.

My family's economic history

I am the first in 4 generations of my family to not become a professional grade school teacher. My grandfather is a veteran. My family fought in Vietnam, World War II, the Civil War, and the Revolutionary War. I work for a state college. You will never find someone with a longer family history of public service than me, which literally stretches back to the founding of our republic. I look at my great-grandmother who was a teacher in California, and when she died, there was nothing left for our family. She had a traditional pension. I look at my grandparents on the other side of my family who have IRAs, and they are quite comfortable in their retirement. Not because of higher wages, but because their retirement has a balance which upon their death instead of going to the billionaires who manage their money will go to their children, grandchildren, and if me, my brother, or cousins have children before they pass, their great-grandchildren. The money they earned will stay in our family for the first time in 250 years, instead of going to the billionaires like my great-grandmother's pension.

My family has served this country since its founding, and the creation of the IRA is what finally moved us out of poverty.

The Trump Administration's attempt to invade Iran is pathetic

Say it with me. Iran is Shiite. Saudi Arabia and Al Qaeda are both of the Salafi interpretation of Sunni Islam. There are MANY movements among Sunni Islam, of which the Salafi are just one. The attempt by the current administration to try to paint a connection between Iran and Al Qaeda is patently false and is playing on the lack of knowledge the average person has on religions besides their own. Iraq is one of a few countries which has many Sunni and Shiite, so keeping Iraq in chaos serves the interests of Saudi Arabia and extremist Christians in fostering the idea that religions cannot coexist. This is the same type of bullshit like what happened in Poland under Soviet Occupation where there was massive ethnic cleansing, fostering the same idea which is that people of differences cannot coinhabit the same area.

The religious extremists who control Saudi Arabia want to dominate the world.

That is why the United States is trying to invade Iran. The rest of the story should now be fairly obvious.

We should all do ourselves a favor and learn the basics of all the world's major religions. This doesn't mean you have to believe in them, but to understand all of the major religions is clearly an important step to world peace.

The lessons of President Clinton

American history has gone through several major cycles where parties have changed. Parties have flipped which regions they dominate, the Overton Window has changed substantially in various directions, and the impact of both the President and Speaker of the House has changed dramatically over time.

His Presidency also has a lot of lessons for our ongoing Presidential Election on what is likely to happen in 2021-2023 assuming a Democrat wins the election.

When people discuss major presidents, certain names always come up, Washington, Lincoln, and both of the Roosevelts are usually the top names historians list as the most important Presidents in American history.


Presidents can both follow the lead of previous presidents, do various levels of impacts on our policies, and lead major realignments in American history. Our system has the Electoral College which is unique in the world. Such are the consequences of being the prototype.

There have been several types of electoral college maps over history, and how various regions have voted.

As time goes on, parties have various levels of support which goes up and down.
I have written about the Electoral College a lot in the past, but today I want to focus on one President in particular, and that is President Clinton.

Before we understand President Clinton we need to understand the political environment as it existed when he became President. Republicans had controlled the Presidency for 19 of the previous 23 years in American history. Richard Nixon started the drug war, and President Ford did as well a job as anyone could given the legacy he was inheriting. President Carter was stonewalled by congress, preventing most of his reforms from occurring. The real challenges President Clinton faced came from two of our most corrupt Presidents in American history, those of Reagan and Bush. He started with an economic policy which moved money from the working class to the 1%, he committed treason during the Iran-Contra affair, he accelerated Nixon's War on Drugs, crashed our economy during the first term, and was supported by the media all the way through, through a policy of charm and hiding information on the corrupt actions he was committing which came out later. He spurred the empowerment of the righteous right, and hurt American culture. Bush was similar to Ford in that his Presidency was not wrecked by scandals as much as his predecessor, and a number of good pieces of legislation but he also pardoned many criminals from the administration of which he was second in command. Neither man deserves to be well remembered by history.

The Clinton presidency started with the first Democratic Trifecta in 12 years. This led to many very important reforms, the Family and Medical Leave Act, National Voter Registration Act, Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act, Violence Against Women Act, and Federal Assault Weapons Ban. Compared to any congress under the Reagan or Bush administrations this was a monumental year. The most important bill of course was Hillarycare, which failed because of opposition which was well organized to get congressional Democrats onboard. It's a complex story, and deserves its own article. Despite the failure of Hillarycare, I do believe that it was still a very successful term in other respects. After that session however, Clinton signed into law many laws such as the Defense of Marriage Act, and Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act which he should have vetoed.

In terms of long term impact, I think the first Session under President Clinton was a success, and he did make America a more free country in the first two years. His remaining 6 years were an absolute disaster. There were many times where he signed laws which he should have vetoed, and by signing almost everything which came across his desk he significantly reduced his power,  giving Congress basically complete control. This is despite the fact that the Democrats won more votes in the 1996 House election than Republicans by a small margin. If he had taken this and forced Gingrich to play hardball he could have increased turnout among Democratic Voters during an era when the map was quickly evolving.

One important part to recognize about the transition which was happening in the 1990s was the elimination of Southern Democrats. In his first two sessions, the Democrats controlled a large number of seats from former Confederate states.

1992 election results

2002 election results

2012 election results

We have seen a near elimination of Southern Democrats from the House since Clinton came to office, and the parties have established very clear lines which most candidates followed. This is very different from when I was born.

In terms of President Clinton's actions, I believe his first two terms paved the way for President Obama to pass the Affordable Care Act in 2010, through the lessons learned. It's failure meant they failed to galvanize Democratic voters and enraged Republican voters so that Gingrich could make his Contract with America in 1994. His remaining 6 years in office were I believe a lost opportunity. If he had vetoed more legislation it would have forced the Republicans to compromise with him, and it would have galvanized Democratic Voters in 2000 showing a clear choice between their two options. It would have also helped galvanize voters in the House elections which would have improved his chances at having more Democrats in 1998.

The real barrier in 1998 was the same as what Obama dealt with, where due to gerrymandering the Republicans were able to pick up a clear majority (over 50% of the seats) with not even a plurality (more than any other party) of the vote. This creation of mostly safe seats benefits rural areas while creating a disadvantage for the majority of Americans who live in urban areas. This significantly reduced the ability of Presidents Clinton and Obama to pass the legislation they both campaigned and pushed for.

We are likely to see a continuation of this pattern in 2023 after the first midterms from whichever candidate succeeds Trump. The Republican machine which consists of Fox News and other right-wing channels is going to push against the Democratic Congress in the 2022 elections, focusing on swing districts. On top of this, many publications pandering to liberal-leaning voters are going to be rattling on about how they didn't get Medicare for all passed, and are shills because we don't live in Utopia passed. Jacobin is one such example. Both of these extreme publications are designed to get people who agree with the idea that everyone should have high quality health care and oppose tyrannical governments such as Putin to convince them that whoever wins is not as liberal as they claim and will continue to whitewash foreign despots. The goal will not be to get Democratic voters to vote for the Republican, but for them to abstain altogether.

Now, a few things are different about the midterms in 3 years. Democrats took a lot of important Governorships a year ago, and this is going to significantly improve our chances of having fair congressional and legislative maps.

Current US Governor affiliation

Eliminating gerrymandering in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are going to give Democrats about a 12 seat advantage as opposed to the map which Obama had to fight throughout his Presidency. This might make enough of a difference in 2022, which remains to be seen.

Ultimately however, we need to reform our election systems to eliminate gerrymandering, which is what FairVote is working on.

Conclusion

1. Clinton did a decent job when he had a trifecta.
2. Clinton failed to stand up for his values as much as he could when facing a Republican congress.
3. The next President will likely start their term with a divided Congress.
4. A President facing an obstinate congress needs to stand up for their values, otherwise they risk alienating the voters they need in order to get a majority in Congress or be succeeded by a President of their party.
5. Gerrymandering can significantly weaken the power of any Democratic President.
6. Clinton served during a time of enormous political change where the parties were solidifying behind national platforms in a way like never before.

Predictions for the next President

1. The next President will have to work with a Republican Senate for at least their first session.
2. There will not be a major health care reform bill in the 117th congress because of Republican opposition in the Senate.
3. Mitch McConnell will likely continue to oppose basically every bill.
4. There are several very good potential pickups for the Senate in 2022, particularly Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. If Democrats can win these three states we might have a slim majority in the Senate of 53 or 54 seats in 2023, which will make it possible to pass legislation.
5. The current Democratic debates are projecting for a fantasy world where they would have a filibuster proof majority in the Senate. This is unfortunately unrealistic. We will need a candidate who is able to work with Republicans as much as possible to get good legislation passed, bad legislation blocked, and get voters excited so that we can take the Senate in 2022.

The biggest lesson of all from the Presidencies of Presidents Clinton and Obama is that we need to reform our election system to eliminate gerrymandering to ensure that every vote counts. No Representative should have no serious competition for our seat.

References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_rankings_of_presidents_of_the_United_States