The successful revolution

There is a tendency among American millennials to be entranced by the French and Russian revolutions as a solution to our problems today. Let's look at how those worked by using historical data.

France

Well, the French revolution culminated with the House of Bonaparte being the Emperor of France, followed by a return of the Capetian dynasty, then a brief republic followed by the House of Bonaparte again from 1852-1870. If we argue that the First Republic was democratic, which is a stretch, it was unstable and didn't last more than a decade. The Committee of Public Safety had near dictatorial power and their democratic constitution was never even put into effect. The Reign of Terror killed over 40,000 people, most of whom were peasants. The Directory was highly corrupt and collapsed after only 4 years into another dictatorship.

After Napoleon became Emperor, the Capetian dynasty returned and ruled until 1848.

The 1848 revolution brought on the French Second Republic. It lasted only 4 years before Napoleon III became emperor. He fell after the Franco-Prussian war of 1870 and the Fourth Republic was proclaimed.

So what really gave France a stable democratic system was not a revolution but losing the Franco-Prussian War of 1870 when Napoleon III was taken prisoner in September 1870. A Republic was proclaimed 3 days later and it lasted until Hitler invaded France in 1940.

France as we can see became a stable republic not from revolution but because the emperor was kidnapped by the Germans.

Germany

Germany became a democracy first with the Weimar Republic, which was crushed by economic disaster as a result of the repayments after the First World War. West Germany became a democracy in 1949, and East Germany merged into the existing West Germany to form Germany in 1990.

This was not a result of revolution.

Russia and Eastern Europe

Russia has never been a democracy. The democracies in Eastern Europe gained power through non-violent revolution during the collapse of the Soviet Union, none of which was from violent revolution and guillotines.

Mexico

The first Mexican Republic was plagued by coups and overthrown by the Centralist Republic in 1835. The Centralist Republic only lasted 11 years, before the Second Federal Republic was founded. Most of the presidents in this period lasted less than a year.

The Second Mexican Empire concluded with Emperor Maximilian I.

The Republic was restored for 9 years before the Profiriato took control in 1876 in a coup.

The Profiriato was overthrown by a revolution which lasted from 1911 to 1928. The current constitution of Mexico was drafted in 1917.

The Modern Mexican state was formed after the 1934 general election. There has not been a coup since. This can be seen as the start of Mexican democracy.

The Mexican Revolution of 1911-1928 arguably was a successful revolution which overthrew a dictator and established a democracy. That being said, Mexico still lags on most indicators regarding corruption and quality of life.

Uruguay

Uruguay had a war of independence against Brazil and they won in 1830. They have remained a stable democracy ever since.

Spain

Spain has a very similar history to France, just delayed from their timeline. Their Sexenio Democratico started in 1868 and lasted only 6 years. The First Spanish Republic lasted only a year before the restoration of the Bourbons.

The Second Spanish Republic lasted 5 years before the Civil War and the rise of Franco.

Franco died in 1975 and there was a peaceful transition to a constitutional monarchy which remains to this day.

India

India became a republic after the Indian Independence Act of 1947 granted them independence. This came following 2 decades of civil disobedience under Gandhi's leadership. There was no violent revolution. India has had a stable democracy ever since. There are many issues India still struggles with today, regarding corruption and quality of life, but they are the world's largest democracy.

United States

The United States is one of the only countries in the world which established a stable system of government following our revolution, and we have never suffered a coup. We have been on our second constitution since 1789. We had a civil war in the 1860s over the issue of slavery, but no president has ever been overthrown in a coup and our electoral system has worked as it has been designed ever since. We have a flawed election system for president, and I believe it needs reform, but it has been stable, and it works.

China

The Republic of China had a successful revolution against the emperor in 1911. The Republic of China still exists today, despite the formation of the People's Republic of China in 1949. China is the only example I have of a country transitioning from a dictatorship to democracy, but not as a war of independence.

Iceland and the rest of Scandinavia

Iceland has the oldest parliament in the world. The Althing was disbanded for part of the 1800s when it was ruled by Denmark. They saw a gradual increase in autonomy until 1940 when Denmark was occupied by the Nazis and they assumed independence. Their isolation gave birth to democracy.

No country in Scandinavia gained democracy through independence. The closest you get is the independence of Finland, but this is more of a response to the Russian Revolution and opting out of being part of the Soviet Union, which the Soviets somehow accepted temporarily until they invaded Finland in 1939. Basically, no country in Scandinavia became democratic through violent revolution.

Italy

Following the end of World War II Italy had a referendum on whether they wanted to become a democracy. As part of their peace treaties Italy became a democracy. 

Ireland

Ireland successfully became a democracy following the Irish War of Independence in 1922. Unusually it became and has remained a successful democracy ever since. I think Ireland is the best example of a democracy being formed via violent revolution given the issues the United States had regarding slavery in the beginning.

Portugal

Portugal became a democracy through a military coup in 1974.

Greece

Greece had a war of independence against the Ottoman Empire between 1821 and 1829. It was replaced with an absolute monarchy in 1832 which evolved into a constitutional monarchy in 1844. The Second Hellenic Republic was formed in 1924. In 1935 the House of Glucksburg returned to the throne until they were deposed in 1973 by a junta. The Third Hellenic Republic was formed via referendum and the Third Hellenic Republic was formed in 1974. The evolution from constitutional monarchy to democracy gave us the modern Greek state.

Conclusion

If we look at the history of other more recent democratizations in South America, we find none of which started their current form as the result of a revolution. There are also no examples in Africa or Asia either.

It is hard to point to any democracy except the United States clearly and see that their current form of government was formed from revolution. No modern social safety net started as a result of violent revolution.

All democracies have grown out of gradual change. Occasionally revolutions occur, but they have never been immediately replaced with a utopia.

The closest examples we have of successful revolutions which built lasting democratic institutions are the following:

• Independence
• United States
• Ireland
• Uruguay
  
• Revolution
  
• Republic of China

Those are the only examples I have. The issues with both of these countries in their post-revolutionary eras are obvious. But, despite their many issues, they have reformed significantly and today rank highly on most indicators.

The Republic of China is the only democracy which was founded as a revolution against another regime and has remained in power to this day over part of its original territory.

Fricking hell... COVID again

Dr. Harald Brussow is right in this article he published a few years back. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8913850/

My Mom just caught COVID. Again.

We still need COVID vaccine mandates in schools and places of work in order to contain the pandemic.

If someone doesn't want to be vaccinated against COVID, they should be allowed to not be employed. This will not be considered a firing but a voluntary termination by the employee, hence they will not eligible for benefits.

Unvaccinated people should be sent to the back of the line at hospitals.

Insurance companies should be allowed to legally deny coverage to unvaccinated people for COVID. Their foolish decisions should not be allowed to negatively impact people who have done everything right.

Vaccines don't just protect you, they protect everyone around you.

Even when exposed to COVID, vaccinated people start fighting the virus faster, and so we develop lower viral loads. This lower viral load lowers the risk we spread it to others compared to unvaccinated people.

Masks help, but as Dr. Brussow states so clearly, masks alone are not enough. They mostly protect others if you are carrying COVID.

If you want to take on the risk, don't put it on others.

Moral hazard is one of the greatest threat to society.

It is literally impossible to enforce mask mandates.

It is possible and fairly easy to enforce vaccine mandates.

We still need vaccine mandates.

They save lives.

Potential North Korea labor camp near Wonson

 

Title explains it. I think I found a North Korean labor camp which has been constructed since 2017 just northwest of Wonson.

Reasons are it is clearly built uniformly by the government. There is a central administrative building in the middle. There are small houses on the edge of what seem to be farms where people live. I believe it is surrounded by walls. There is no easy way for people to get from their houses to other houses, no clear community buildings, and no clear way for them to enter or exit the obviously walled area.

This is clearly a new North Korean labor camp.

We must be the better country

 At the core of the US constitution are basic rights and freedoms. One of these is that we are innocent until proven guilty, and a prohibition on cruel and unusual punishments.

Our government rightfully condemns human rights abuses in Afghanistan and North Korea. We should. Those countries routinely abuse the rights of their citizens. North Korea imprisons children because of things their grandparents said. Afghanistan is prohibiting the ability of women and girls to go to school.  These countries governments are abhorrent and the worst in the world.

We are right to condemn them.

But since George Bush was president there has been an increasing trend of the United States to abuse the rights of prisoners in this country who have not been proven to be US citizens. Afghan refugees are stuck in camps, unable to get refugee status to the United States, despite that they have that right under laws we have signed. The Biden Administration has failed them. https://theintercept.com/2023/09/13/afghan-refugee-resettlement-camps/

Many Afghan refugees have been resettled. But many more are left in resettlement camps today. This is abhorrent and we need to give them their legal rights.

We must be better than this. Russian propaganda deliberately looks for any reason to criticize the United States for violating the human rights we claim to uphold. We need to end these abuses.

We need to reform our immigration laws and end the crisis at the border which was started by George W. Bush. This will require action from congress ultimately, but there are things President Biden can do now to reduce the suffering at the border.

It's about human rights and basic decency.

I hope someday we will have more politicians who are more in line with these values and will do the hard work to overturn laws which violate the rights of people in this country.

As we need to continue to rightfully claim we want the North Korean and Afghan governments to fall, which will solve human rights violations in this country we need to also do everything we can to be as good as possible. The most important reason is because giving refugees their rights under international law. The second most important reason is we must give absolutely no ammunition to the Russian propaganda machine to claim we are hypocrites. Afghan refugees being stuck in limbo and the lack of visas for farm workers leading to thousands of people in immigration detention camps just feeds the narrative that we are hypocrites.

We need to reform the laws we have for domestic laws as well. Mandatory minimum sentencing, the drug war, and other factors. We need to make sure that someone when they leave prison is done serving their time.

We must do better.

How we destroyed American transportation, and how we can save it

Step 1: Sell off Conrail just as it makes a profit, devastating American railroads for a century.

Step 2: Allow mergers of railroads nationwide, leaving 4 companies in control of most rail in the country. They barely compete with each other since most of the market is segmented. Most routes are controlled by one and only one corporation. This leads to gross inefficiency and sky-high rates.

Step 3: Allow mergers of airlines across the country, reducing service and increasing fares.

Step 4: Private railroads reduce the ability of AMTRAK to serve communities. This leads to our airports being jammed up with local routes which are the majority of flights in North America.

Step 5: Airlines increased ticket prices due to the lack of competition and the devastation of American railroads. Most people drive.

Airlines profit. Oil companies profit. Private railroads profit.

You don't profit. You lose.

All of this can be reversed by just bringing the railroads back under government control. AMTRAK and potentially some private railroads (flix train anyone?) are able to compete with each other and this competition with most airline routes will mean the airlines need to treat their customers better and charge you less money.

There are a few proposals right now to create better rail service in the United States. California HSR is the most promising, it is double tracked, high speed, and the best quality we are building. Unfortunately, we need to build brand new track because the existing rails are private, so we cannot do incremental improvements because of our system. So we need to go all in and build a brand new track. There is no other way.

there are a few other projects. Texas HSR is the second most promising, because it is a joint project between AMTRAK and has a good plan.

Brightline is making big claims abut its expansion in Florida and California, but they are not double tracking their California line, their Florida will not be high speed rail, and their fares are already the highest in the country. They also have more fatalities on their line than any other railroad, due to lacking safety precautions, so I am skeptical. Someday they will most likely be taken over by AMTRAK.

While I applaud the expansion of passenger rail in general, this is too little, too slow, and too late. We need more, and we need it soon. We need to nationalize all of the private tracks in the country. We need to bring them under control of AMTRAK. AMTRAK can then make a small profit, improve tracks around the country incrementally, fixing the lowest quality highest demand tracks in the country and expanding out from there. AMTRAK should be able to levy bonds to cover capital improvements (building track, improving track, and buying trains) so they can grow quickly. They will make revenue from passenger rail and freight rail. Private passenger rail (such as Flix train) will be allowed to run on the tracks along with AMTRAK, but AMTRAK will own the track itself. AMTRAK will regulate the usage of our track with safety regulations, to ensure it can work for everyone. There will be no more of this precision railroading bullshit.

Why not drive? Several reasons. Driving is not as sustainable, driving will always be slower, and driving is often more expensive than a good functioning rail system if you pay for the infrastructure you are using. Trains are far more affordable to operate and assuming drivers pay for the entire cost of the infrastructure they use, far less expensive for the end user.

 

Our transportation system is broken. Our transportation system needs reform.

 

I want to be at camp with my friends, but instead I will be at home this weekend because American railroads are a laughing stock.

 

Nationalize the railroads.