Fight Global Warming

Cut American emission in half

Overview: EIA
Overview of sources: EIA

Where we need to do the most work:

50% of Northeast Ohio’s emissions come from electricity production. Geothermal plants could reduce this significantly.
gcbl

Wyoming has the most emissions per capita. 57% of their energy is for housing. Geothermal heating could significantly reduce emissions in Wyoming. 22% of their energy is used for transportation. 91% of electricity in Wyoming is from coal. Wyoming needs immediate investment in geothermal power plants, geothermal heating, and solar power.
Institute for Energy Research List of US states by carbon dioxide emissions
 
The best way to reduce North Dakota’s carbon footprint is by reducing America’s demand for oil. North Dakota has the second largest footprint on a per capita basis. Coal is the largest source of electricity. 28.7 MMT from coal, 16.1 MMT from industry.

West Virginia is the 4th worst state per capita. West Virginia needs to move its workers from coal to renewable power as soon as possible. Almost 100% of their electricity is from coal. 68.7 MMT from electricity, 10 MMT from Industry.

Alaska is the 5th worst state per capita. Natural gas is the number one source of carbon emissions. (EIA) Heavy subsidies for geothermal heating will significantly reduce their carbon footprint. Natural gas and oil account for 100% of Alaska’s net carbon emissions. Moving off of oil for transportation and geothermal heating for houses will be enough. Alaska can easily do this by a carbon tax and using that money for no-interest loans for geothermal heating and power, and other renewable energy sources. This will cut over 20 MMT Co2 annually. GHG Inventory Report 2015 for Alaska
 
Louisiana is the 6th worst state per capita (44.5 metric tons) or 207 million metric tons in total. Most of their electricity is from natural gas. Industry produces over half their carbon emissions (40 million metric tons), from oil and natural gas production. Louisiana needs an immediate increase in solar power statewide to reduce their carbon footprint.

Texas is the number one state for carbon emissions, at 709 million metric tons or 26 metric tons per capita. Natural gas is it number one source of fuel and the number one source for electricity. We can cut this by implementing more efficient air to with 35% of the total or 226 MMT CO2. Texas needs immediate large scale investment in solar and geothermal.

Florida is the 6th worst state in total carbon emissions. 50% of their emissions are from electricity production. Natural gas is the leader in carbon emissions, followed by coal. Eliminating these would cut 104 MMT of CO2

Easiest projects to complete:

1. Make Alaska Carbon Neutral. 20 MMT
2. Eliminate 100% of Washington State’s electricity emissions. They are from the Trans-Alta Plant in Centralia. 11.7 MMT

Long-scale urgent projects

1. Boost renewable electricity production in Texas to replace current fossil fuel technologies. 226
2. Boost renewable electricity production in Louisiana and reduce production of oil and natural gas. 40 from electricity, 105 from industry.
3. End coal production in West Virginia. 70
4. End coal power plants in North Dakota. 28.7
5. End coal power plants in Pennsylvania. 105.9
6. End coal power plants in Ohio. 101.9
7. End coal and natural gas in Florida. 104 MMT
8. End coal power plants in Indiana. 98 MMT
9. Implement a nationwide electric car network and replace all internal combustion engines with renewable energy. Ban the sale of fossil fuels by 2030. 1740 MMT from Transportation can be reduced this way. I recommend transitioning to this using a carbon tax as soon as possible.

We can do all of this in the next 15 years.
This will reduce 2619.5 MMT of Carbon dioxide or over 50% of America’s total carbon emissions.
We need to do this

Help reduce emissions in other countries.

There are a few policies the United States can do to pressure other countries to reduce global warming, such as:

1. Ban the export of all coal and oil products from the United States.
2. Export renewable energy technologies with no tariffs.
3. Significantly invest in renewable energy research

City beautiful

I really enjoy looking at how good cities are designed as opposed to bad cities, and have found a list of several policies which I believe would be good to improve the livability of cities around the world. These policies should be applicable to cities of all sizes in most situations.

Free Transit which serves all major commutes in a metropolitan area

When it comes to building a functional transit system, a few key components come to mind. First thing of all, the transit must be frequent for convenience so people can not just get to their destination but also get back home. It must be fast, and this means rail is the way to do it for longer or high density commuters. The top priority is of course to make sure you have a network going out from downtown, and also to ensure high density routes around the city are covered as well.

The majority of trips in the metropolitan area should be easily covered by mass transit in about the same amount of time it will take to drive.

Munich, Germany has the best transit system I have ever used in my life:

This system hits all of the best parts I have learned abuot how to design a transit system. I would personally remove the zoning laws which increase fares outside of the white area, but the white area covers the vast majority of the city. On top of this, all of the buses are free as well.

If you want a highly functioning high quality transit system, be like Munich.

The reason to have free transit is because people think on the margin, which is that we act on the small bit of gain for the next bit of effort. If the amount of gain is larger than the effort expended, people will probably make the change. People have trade off ratios between time and money (obviously) and in order to encourage people to do the right thing we need the better option for the environment and society be the cheaper and faster option. We make it faster not by slowing down other methods (for this reduces societal welfare) but by making the sustainable option (aka rail) faster and cheaper. The easiest way to do this is by having free and fast transit. Wilkommen aus München.

Congestion pricing on freeways

Once you have fixed your transit system, which needs to happen first to give people an alternative to driving, you need to make driving more expensive in the areas with chronic congestion. The first step is to toll all exit ramps within 3 km of downtown at a rate which changes with congestion. This will give further encouragement for people to get out of their

Taller buildings to increase density and reduce pricing

Improving transit to areas will have a double impact, places closer to downtown will be cheaper ceteris paribus, and places further from downtown will be more expensive. This should balance out in the long run, but the way to ensure prices don't spiral out of control is to increase density, particularly near rail stations. This benefits society in two ways, more supply means lower prices, ceteris paribus, and having high density near a train station means these people can walk to the station which increases the amount people will commute via train vs drive their own cars.

More policies to reduce environmental impact

The first three policies further two goals, reduce pollution and reduce wasted time. Both of these are expensive and cost a large city billions of dollars of productivity every year. With more people taking transit and people living in denser areas, the environmental impact of your city will be reduced, but we can still go further.

The first policy is the easiest to implement and the one with the biggest impact, is an escalating exemption free carbon tax which would be implemented in all states around your metropolitan area. This makes burning gasoline more expensive, encouraging people to either use transit or get an electric car. It should be placed at least at the societal cost of burning gasoline. This is proven to work around the world.

The second policy is a lot harder to implement but would make a big difference. We should make it so that people don't have to have long commutes to work by zoning in a mixed zoning method. Have commercial and office buildings spread throughout the city along with housing fairly evenly. Industrial generally needs to be set apart for pollution and noise reasons (as any Cities Skylines player knows) which will mean you will have commuters to those locations, but this can be remedied  by ensuring there is very good transit to the closest residential areas to the industrial area for those workers to be able to use. You keep residential prices low by ensuring your transit system is consistent across the metropolitan area.

Policies which should be taken for granted

Obviously water, sewage, trash, electricity, education, and internet should be provided by the city because they are all natural monopolies. Education should be free, and all of these other natural monopolies should be sold to consumers at cost. It shouldn't be free because such a policy invites waste, but it shouldn't be expensive either. Having this done by local government will ensure that people are more likely to get the quality they need, and that they won't spend more money on an inferior service. When I say education I include all education up through a bachelor's degree at a minimum.

I am deeply offended I had to put all of these on the list. Goddamn Rick Snyder.

Progressive Taxation

Finally, all of these policies are well and good, we need to ensure they are being paid for in a way which is fair and equitable to all. This means on top of our carbon tax we need to have a progressive tax code, which means a progressive income tax. This I would do by taxing all income for a single individual above $100,000 at a progressive rate, and having a negative income tax for a single individual who makes less than $100,000. This is on my tax code blog post, which I refer back to all the time because it is one of the most important pieces of writing I have ever done and I can't improve on it.

This is, in my experience, what a beautiful and functional city looks like.

Venezuela February 2019

There is a lot of talk about Venezuela currently with people making many erroneous claims. This is meant to be a relatively in depth study of Venezuela's economy, political structure, and history.

History

Pre-History

Venezuela has been inhabited by people for thousands of years.

Colonialization

Venezuela was conquered by the Spaniards in the 16th century, like most of the Americas.

Independence and Gran Colombia (1812-1827)

Venezuela was part of the Bolivarian Republic.

Early Independent Venezuela (1827-1948)

Venezuela had a democracy for most of its early history.

Military Dictatorship (1948-1958)

Venezuela was ruled by a military dictatorship for 10 years.

Republic of Venezuela (1953-1999)

The Republic of Venezuela saw a regular transition between the Democratic Action and Copei Parties. Economically it was a petrostate, but it maintained democratic traditions during these 46 years. The last President was Rafael Caldera who saw steady economic growth and invested in education and infrastructure during his Presidency. He opened the oil industry to foreign companies, and this helped economic growth.

Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro (1999-2019)

Hugo Chavez won the Presidency in December 1998. during his presidency the economy boomed during his time in office, mostly as the result of soaring oil prices. His response to this good fortune was to nationalize multiple industries, financed by the rents on exporting oil during the high oil prices of the 2000s.
Due to this circumstantial good fortune of being the leader of a country sitting on massive oil reserves in an era where oil prices only went up with an exception of the Great Recession, he was able to maintain popularity as people had everything they needed. Chavez died on 5 March 2013, leaving Maduro as President. The first year was smooth for Maduro, as the price of oil continued to hover around 100 USD per barrel. This good fortune ended in June 2014, by January 2016 the price hit a trough of $35 per barrel. This was to no fault of Maduro by himself. However, the consequences of a highly centralized economy, with being the third lowest score in the Ease of Doing Business in the world, has prevented their economy from being flexible to a rapidly changing situation. the oil rents which funded the services provided by the Venezuelan government gone, Maduro was faced with a choice, he could either liberalize the economy and allow the invisible hand to allocate resources, or he could clamp down on an economy with massive shortages and literal famine as a result of his policies. this has been documented in a 400 page report by the Organization of American States which is viewable here, and worth reading. In short, they have called on Nicolas Maduro to be charged by the ICC for crimes against humanity which the document outlines, which is highly unusual.

I do not care if a dictator calls himself socialist or fascist. I just care that Nicolas Maduro has violated the human rights of his people, which is always inexcusable. Venezuela has the largest refugee crisis from a non-war zone since the partition of India. It is the 6th or 7th largest refugee crisis in recorded history. The lack of food and economic devastation over the last couple of years has devastated the Venezuelan economy.

Economics

Venezuela sits on the largest proven oil reserves in the world. The government has used the rents from exporting oil to finance projects, particularly under the Chavez regime.

Venezuela has seen significant economic collapse over the last few years, with two years in a row with a -14% GDP growth rate, and a poverty rate which has skyrocketed from 19.7% in 2015 to 87% in 2017. Inflation has soared to over 2 million percent this year. A significant reduction in GDP and a significant increase in prices is massive stagflation, a significant shrinking of supply over a short period of time. With government corporations no longer getting the oil rents they were funded with, this should surprise no one.

They say to never put all your eggs in one basket, and Venezuela gives an incredible example of why this is true, for that is exactly what Chavez did.

References

• Price of Oil
• Venezuela economic statistics
• Largest refugee crises
• Wikipedia

Green New Deal

Representative Ocasio-Cortez presented her green new deal plan this week, and it s a non binding resolution. This is useful to give a signal which representatives are going for support a more es expansive policy, but it still leaves out details on how to do it.

Wired did a fantastic job outlining the policy.

She is attempting to address both income inequality and global warming in one legislation, which is exactly what Initiative 732 did. She doesn't have details unfortunately.

Here is how I would do address both climate change and inequality in one blow:

1. A carbon tax with no exemptions which starts at $25 per ton and increases at 3.5% + inflation annually with no cap or expiration date.
2. Implement high speed rail on the 100 most high demand routes, from the most to least important.
3. No income tax below $100,000 annual income for a single person.
4. Allow Americans to privatize their Social Security taxes in IRA accounts. Eliminate the cap on Social Security taxes. This will effectively fight income inequality.
5. A $5000 annual Universal Basic Income. Minors will have half their Universal Basic Income in a trust for when they are 18, and half goes to their parents. that money they receive when they are 18 will be enough to cover room and board in college, and the money is theirs, so their parents will have no power over them. The $5000 in the beginning of the year will help people get out of debt or invest in their future. Once out of debt, it is enough to fully fund someone's retirement account for retirement.
6. Three options for health care, all options allow Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices.
1. A public option and increase Medicaid eligibility to $60,000 per person annual income for a single individual.
2. Everyone is eligible for Medicaid.
7. Free college tuition at public universities.
8. Tax capital gains as regular income.
9. Either my full tax plan, or have a new bracket at 50% for all income above $1 million per year.