Use economics to make life decisions

Data available

Life insurance

Is life insurance a good deal? Dave Ramsey sells it, and certainly thinks it is a good idea. He is opposed to Whole Life Insurance, and I agree with him there. Life insurance pays out in the case of the death of the policy holder, for the amount you claim. If you don't die in the term, you lose 100% of your money. If you miss a payment, your policy is cancelled, and you lose 100% of your money.

You are literally betting you will die in the term specified by the life insurance. It is truly one of the most cheerful of economic instruments.

With this in mind, here are the numbers for someone with my height and weight in my zip code (your numbers will vary) who doesn't use drugs:

Mid-20s

Age: 26
Term: 30 years
Limit: $1,000,000
Monthly payment: $51.93

Total payments: $18,694

Probability of death: 1:15

ACTUAL VALUE: $66,666

Stock market value (assuming average S&P 500 yield which is 8% annually, compounded monthly): $72,626.82

Local Bond yield (assuming a 6% return annually, compounded monthly): $50,309

Don't buy. The stock market will give you a better return than your expected value weighting for the probability of death. If you don't, then you will fit into the next category for your renewal policy. This life insurance policy is better than local bonds however, but significantly more risky because you have a 100% loss if you don't die, losing the down payment on a house for no benefit.

Middle aged

Age: 56
Term: 30 years
Limit: $1,000,000
Monthly payment: $556
Total payments: $200,160
Probability of death: 50%
ACTUAL VALUE: $500,000
Stock market value: $777,595
Local bond yield: $538,651

Don't buy, the stock market is still a better value for your money. Even municipal bonds are a better investment.

These all assume you are perfectly healthy. In both cases the expected value of life insurance is a worse deal than a standard index fund. Life insurance is an extremely risky bet for a number of reasons:

1. If you don't die you take a 100% loss on every dollar you spent.
2. The return once you factor in risk is not as good as it seems without calculating your probability of death.

My recommendation is to start an investment account with Acorns for the same amount you would put into a life insurance policy, because it is significantly less risky (you would only lose all your money in the case of economic Armageddon, whereas with life insurance it is all but guaranteed) and gives a good return compared to other accounts.

Older Senior

If you are lucky enough to live to be 84 in this case, what is your probability? the calculator does not give rates for people over 85. It also limits me to whole life and $40,000 for this scenario.

Age: 84
Term: Whole Life
Limit: $40,000
Monthly payment: $683
Time until stock market matches limit: 4 years 3 months
Time until municipal bonds match limit: 4 years 5 months

Life insurance makes absolutely no sense for seniors to purchase under any circumstances.

References:
http://www.candidmoney.com/calculators/death-probability-calculator
https://www.policygenius,com/life-insurance

Buy a House

One of the biggest decisions in life you can make is to buy a house, it is a long-term asset, and means you never need to pay rent again. But, is it worth it?

If you were to rent out a room in a house, you should expect to pay between $600 and $1000 per month, to live in a shared living situation. This will cost between $7200 and $12,000 per year.

If you were to buy a $200,000 house, you would first take out a mortgage for that amount. You can expect to pay $946 per month for 30 months with a 3.92% interest rate under this system, for a total payment of $340,427.

The obvious advantage of buying a house is that if you move you can sell your house, or rent it out for income, and this means that you can recover the majority of what you spent.

However, this is still not accurate because a home equity line of credit is a better deal still. A Home Equity Line of Credit is going to save you money by putting all of your income into your line of credit when you receive it and then withdraw the money from the home equity line of credit for your monthly expenses. You can further reduce your monthly payments by purchasing on a credit card and then paying off monthly from your line of credit. Do this for two reasons,

1. Credit cards only charge you on the balance you carry over monthly. If you pay off monthly, you do not pay interest on that card.
2. You get rewards for using a credit card, if you get the right one. In my experience, airline credit cards offer the best value.
3. By only withdrawing from your line of credit at the end of the month you reduce your interest owed on your line of credit, saving you years of your life and tens of thousands of dollars.

If you were to do this, on a $200,000 home equity line of credit, with the same 3.92% interest rate, with $4000 of income per month, withdrawing $2000 for your cost of living (this includes everything) you will pay off your mortgage in 11.5 years and spend $41,582 in interest, for a total payment of $241,582.

The best part of all is that after you are done paying your HELOC off, it continues as a line of credit, increasing your credit score.

Also, by using credit cards to reduce interest owed on your HELOC you have saved thousands of dollars, as long as you pay them off monthly. All of this goes to increase your credit score by having multiple accounts with large balances with constantly reducing your percentage of credit used. This works as long as you pay off your cards monthly and stick to the plan.

On the other hand, if you were to take out a $200,000 mortgage as I outlined above you would have spent $340,427.

You can pay more on your HELOC because you can withdraw later if needed, only paying your 3% interest rate as opposed to a 20% credit card interest rate (unless if you have American Express, which is lower). If you had only left the same $946 per month on your Home Equity Line of Credit you would have paid $335,035. This won't save you much money, but it is still better than a mortgage, saving you $5000. Paying off as much as possible every month is the best deal, and you will not receive fees for doing so.

If you were to rent a room however for that thirty year period (at $750 per month), it would cost you $270,000, and you would have no equity.

Buying a house with a home equity line of credit is obviously the best option.

Buy an annuity

The stock market is too risky you say. You don't feel good about real estate investing. Some slick financier comes to you and says "buy an annuity from me."

Should you?

I ran some numbers on Charles Schwab:
If I get myself a $2000 monthly income annuity starting on December 16, 2057, I would have to pay $96,434 in my premium for a guarantee for the rest of my life.

If I have 30 years of retirement than I would receive $720,000 of income in today's money for paying $96,434. This is about the same amount of money as I would receive if I had just taken $2000 per month out of a retirement account where I had deposited the same $206.06 per month for the next 39 years. HOWEVER, when I die at 95 in 2087 after investing in the stock market I would have almost $3 million saved up ON TOP OF the amount that I had already withdrawn for my living expenses, which I could do with as I please.

Or I could just give those three million dollars to a major multinational bank with an annuity. Guaranteed income... for the bank.

Stock market too risky? Then you could also put your money into municipal bonds, but you will not make enough interest to cover your payments to force you to drain your account by the time you are 95, leaving you with only $100,000 at 95 years old. Going only into municipal bonds is foolish.

You will definitely get the money for life in an annuity, but the return is millions of dollars less than you would make by having a diversified stock portfolio.

If you die early, you would need to pay more upfront for the privilege of getting your money back. Otherwise, the bank takes the cake. How nice of you.

Given the medical advancements which continue in today's world, I do not think this is a good idea. It does not beat a diversified portfolio in the long run.

My Uncle Wayne died last April at the age of 101. My Onkel Jurgen died at the age of 104 last year. My Auntie Gloria died two weeks ago at the age of 97, the xlast of my great-great aunts. Getting a 20 year guarantee would cost me a lot for no benefit (in all likelihood) and I would probably lose money (taking into account opportunity cost) with an annuity.

A diversified index fund is a better deal.

Divide between stocks and bonds

50/50 split each year, withdrawal from each account

Is it a better idea to move from stocks to bonds in retirement? Is this going to reduce your risk? It will certainly reduce your standard deviation, but this is NOT THE SAME THING AS RISK!

The attached spreadsheet makes this clear. If you put the money you would have spent on that annuity into a diversified index fund, you will hit $2 million in your 100th year and your municipal bond fund will be in the red, assuming you take half of your withdrawals from each account, and deposit half in each account. Sounds like a deal to you?

For comparison, in a diversified stock fund you will hit $4 million in your 100th year.

Sound like a deal to you?

Move money from stock account to bond account after 65

Everything is the same until your 65th birthday, as in all of your money goes into a diversified stock portfolio

Another "safe" strategy is to move money from your stock account to your bond account after your 65th birthday. Let's say you do this, and you move half of your monthly interest from your stock account to your bond account for "safety".

Keep in mind that you will retire with half a million when you retire at 65 regardless, and this is from paying only $206 per month each year you work, the same amount the annuity required.

When you turn 100 you will be $807,210.36 short of where you would have been if you had just kept your money in the stock market in your retirement.

Does that sound safe to you?

Keep in mind in the case of economic Armageddon, bond yields will drop to nothing as well.

Learn economics

The stock market is the best investment out there today, as long as you have it through a diversified index fund.

But, let's say you want to fully understand how to prevent risk? The best way to do this is to learn economics. In order to do this, make sure you study the following before you start:

1. Calculus 1 and 2
2. College level Statistics

Economic models which are necessary to understand these concepts are built on these three classes more than anything else.

Then, do the following:

1. Microeconomic
2. Macroeconomics

If you are enjoying this so far, continue with these four classes (which I find to be the most useful day in and day out)

1. Intermediate Microeconomics (how the microeconomic model is derived)
2. Intermediate Macroeconomics (Solow model)
3. Economics of Money and Banking
4. Public Finance, understand how government budgets work and interact with the economy.

This is how you understand the market to ensure you can make good decisions. Ensure you know calculus, statistics, and the first two microeconomics and macroeconomics courses. These provide you with the tools you need to be able to at least tell which economists on TV are telling the truth and which are liars.

There are three podcasts I highly recommend to learn, and that people should follow, those are Planet Money and the Indicator by NPR and Freakonomics. Freakonomics is longer than Planet Money in terms of each episode. The Indicator is nice because it is always about 5 minutes long, and covers a different topic every day. They have guests who are PhD economists, and are together with some introductory courses in micro and macroeconomics an excellent way to get started in the field.

This is one investment which will definitely be good for your financial future. High-quality education is always worthwhile.

After you learn these introductory concepts, you will be prepared to do the calculations I did above, saving yourself millions of dollars.

Non-contradicotry proposals

Economists usually say this:

• Don't bail out the banks, that's bad. Let them survive in a free market as they demand.
• Please don't bail out big companies.
• Please make it easier to start a business.
• Everyone should have the right to own their work.
• Please don't collectivize everything, that's happened before, it didn't work. 
• Private industry is good.

But we also usually say:

• We hate Comcast, they over charge and provide lackluster service. ISPs should be run by the public sector.
• Nationalize the railways!
• Public parks are wonderful!
• Health care must be available to all! 

These follow a few basic values which most of us hold dear, and those are that quality of life is the ultimate goal of society. Make a more equitable and wealthier society without compromising the environment. Holding these three goals in tangent creates these basic ideas as generally accepted ideas. Studying over two centuries has made these 10 points understandable. The 4 places where I list things we think the government should have a large role are natural monopolies, or have monopolistic tendencies (such as medicine), and hence in order to increase quantity provided only a government can provide those 4 services.

More importantly, looking at the economy through a monoscopic lens of "government good, private industry bad" or "government bad, private industry good" misses the point entirely. the ultimate goal, to increase the quality of life for everybody doesn't fit neatly into such one dimensional boxes. But a more detailed understanding of political theory and morality which is truly multidimensional (rich, equitable, sustainable) suggests policies which if fully implemented would truly make the world a better place.

Proposal to expand Schengen

The Schengen Treaty is without a doubt one of the most important treaties in the world. It comprises 26 states, most of which are members of the European Union, have a GDP of $15 trillion and a population of 419 million people. People are free to move within this area, they can live and work in any other member state, as there are no customs whatsoever between any of these countries. Most members are EU members, with a few exceptions, Iceland, Liechstenstein, Monaco, Norway, San Marino, Switzerland, and Vatican City.

This is the pure liberal dream. The idea is that without trade barriers between these countries that people will have less of a desire to go to war with others. And it has worked along with the free trade area which has grown out of the European Coal and Steel Community which was founded in the 1950s. Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, and Romania are currently pending the next council meeting.

The question now is, should Schengen be expanded, and if it is, how? As the title of this article suggests, I am in favor of expansion. The Schengen Treaty, as a legal document presents very clear rules on what is to move in between borders. The bulk of the laws are included in section 1, under the 14 June 1985 convention. The rules are laid out in the following titles as follows in this convention:

1. Definitions
2. Abolition of Checks at Internal Borders and Movement of Persons
1. Crossing Internal Borders
2. Crossing External Borders
3. Visas
1. Short-Stay Visas
2. Long-Stay Visas
4. Conditions Governing the Movement of Aliens
5. Residence Permits and Alerts for the Purposes of Refusing Entry
6. Accompanying Measures
7. Responsibility for Processing Applications for Asylum
3. Police and Security
1. Police Cooperation
2. Mutual Assistance in Criminal Matters
3. Application of the Ne Bis In Idem Principle (No double jeopardy)
4. Extradition
5. Transfer of the Enforcement of Criminal Judgements
6. Narcotic Drugs
7. Firearms and Ammunition
4. Schengen Information System
1. Establishment of the Schengen Information System
2. Operation and Use of the Schengen Information System
3. Protection of Personal Data and Security of Data in the Schengen Information System
4. Apportionment of the Costs of the Schengen Information System
5. Transport and Movement of Goods
6. Protection of Personal Data
7. Executive Committee
8. Final Provisions

All of the laws and regulations are already in existence already, and the rules for Schengen are really straight forward and reasonable. Basically, control the borders, Mutual recognition of each other's visas, police need to cooperate and respect the laws and decisions of other countries in the area, sharing of information between countries when it comes to visa relevant information, a common tariff policy, don't leak data, and each member has a seat in the executive committee. That's the entire agreement in a nutshell.

There is also, notably, no requirement of a country to be in the European Union or even Europe to join the Schengen Area in the original document. This means, theoretically, that the Schengen Area could be expanded to outside Europe if I am not missing another law which regards Schengen membership. This seems to be the case because Switzerland joined in 2008, and it is not a member of the EU, and Liechtenstein joined in 2011 after the Treaty of Lisbon, the last major amendment to European law. This means that non-member states can indeed join the Schengen area.

The question then becomes... who should be included? Prospective countries to join the Schengen treaty could be established by fitting the following criteria in my mind:

1. Adopt the European Charter of Rights and Freedoms as law, or have comparable laws on the books already.
2. Have a Corruption Perceptions Index at least as high as the Schengen member with the lowest score.
3. Have a better Press Freedom Index then the member state with the lowest score. This is a useful proxy for how well the Charter of Rights and Freedoms are respected.
4. Have an economic system which makes it easy for businesses to flourish, using the Ease of Doing Business Index. We want the member country to be fully engaged in the common market.
5. Have no significant domestic terrorism. This can be measured by homicide rate.

These are 5 things which can easily be implemented.

Corruption Perceptions Index

Press Freedom Index

The Schengen member with the highest (worst) Corruptions Perception Index currently is Greece, at 44. they ranked #69 in the world as of 2017, which leaves 43 potential members by that metric.

The Schengen member with the highest press freedom score currently is still Greece, though Bulgaria will likely acede soon and it has the worst score, but they will likely not be chosen due to the factors which cause them to fare so poorly on the press freedom index, so that leaves Greece as the lowest score. They rank #70 in the world as of 2018 (yes, these are significantly correlated indexes) and that again leaves 44 potential members by this metric.

The obvious choices for membership by these two metrics combined are:

1. New Zealand
2. Canada
3. United Kingdom
4. Australia
5. United States
6. Ireland
7. Japan
8. Uruguay
9. Chile
10. Taiwan
11. Botswana
12. Cape Verde
13. Costa Rica
14. Georgia
15. Cyprus
16. Mauritius
17. South Korea
18. Namibia
19. Croatia
20. Romania
21. Senegal
22. South Africa
23. Suriname

This map is interesting for many reasons. Following this logic there are countries which are qualified to join the Schengen Area using my first two criteria on every continent. Some countries which have expressed interest are missing from the map, Israel is blank because their press isn't free enough, Bulgaria is blank despite being considered to join the Schengen area because they are too corrupt,  Ukraine is both too corrupt and their press is not free enough.

The one other variable which could be useful in determining whether a country would be able to join the Schengen Area would be the Ease of Doing Business Indicator. The reason for this one is the acquis on the free movement of capital, and if a country doesn't allow ease of movement of capital within its own borders it will not be able to join Schengen. This significantly reduces the number of countries which are eligible to join down to 17 prime candidates. The economies of Botswana, Cape Verde, Namibia, Senegal, Suriname, and Uruguay are less free than that of Malta, the Schengen member with the least free economy, which means that the best candidates for joining the Schengen map looks like this:

Every country shaded in red on this list has a Corruptions Perceptions Index, Press Freedom Index, and Ease of Doing Business Index ranking better than the worst performer currently in the Schengen region.

The top performer not currently in Schengen currently is New Zealand when you multiply the CPI, DBI and divide by the PFI. The order of this ranking follows as Canada, Australia, Ireland, United Kingdom, Costa Rica, United States, Taiwan, Chile, Cyprus, Japan, South Korea, Georgia, Mauritius, Romania, South Africa, and then Croatia. If the current member states of the Schengen Area and these 17 countries chose to unify their customs into the Schengen area this would be mutually beneficial.

The countries which would most benefit from joining would honestly be the United States and Canada. With the world's longest border, highly developed economies and being among the most free in the world, we could benefit in joining.

Another factor when it comes to opening up your borders to another country is safety. This is easily measured using homicide rate as a rough approximation of the relative safety of one country or another. Three countries unfortunately have homicide rates which the European Union will likely find unacceptable, and those are Costa Rica, South Africa, and my home, the USA. The country with the highest murder rate in the Schengen area is Lithuania with a homicide rate of 5.25 people per 100,000. The United States unfortunately has a homicide rate of 5.35 meaning if the Schengen Area would not allow new members due to an intentional homicide rate we are just above the threshold.

This problem deserves special attention because we are so close to having a low enough murder rate to qualify for Schengen Membership, if this was a qualifier. Looking at murder rates by states and territories, the ones which have a higher murder rate than Lithuania are in descending murder rate (by latest available data): Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, Maryland, Arkansas, Alaska, Alabama, Mississippi, Illinois, South Carolina, Tennessee, New Mexico, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio, Indiana, Arizona, Kentucky, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Reference

This deserves an article of its own, and we need to focus on reducing our murder rate as a country.

This still leaves 14 countries around the world which have the proper statistics to join the Schengen travel area, from every continent. These 14 have low corruption, and are safe. Schengen is estimated to boost the trade and economics of the member states, and there is overwhelming economic evidence that increasing trade reduces the likelihood of war. For these reasons I believe it would be wise for the Schengen Treaty to be expanded outside of Europe, the UK and Ireland should join Schengen (which I know is unlikely due to the whole Brexit debacle) because it is the logical next step to fostering peace in the world we live in.

Countries which could theoretically join Schengen.

Election 2018 Recap and future elections

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. It set the victory, it set the failure. The beginning came at the same time as the end, and for totally different reasons.

What a night. This was one of the most exciting elections I have ever seen, with several major victories, and major losses as well.

The headline in the New York Times tomorrow will undoubtedly be Democrats take the House, but the sub-headline should read, Democrats also take 4 additional trifectas, and lose two key Senate races by less than 100,000 votes.

Needless to say, there were some major victories tonight for the Democratic Party. Taking the House is no laughing matter. But, when the President has been under investigation for a full 2 years, his policies are wildly out of line with what the majority of Americans believe, and Americans are being turned away from the polls because they literally don't have enough ballots for everyone (but only in minority precincts), or simply can't wait 4 or more hours in a line to go to the polls,  we know that there were people who tried to vote but didn't have their voice heard, and that did swing the election in several really important ways tonight.

When it comes to the Senate:

• Florida, one state which we know has been merging precincts and under preparing their polling places for the numbers of people in their precincts, had their Senate race came within 60,000 votes. This is a crime, and is one place the Democratic Party or Eric Holder when he was Attorney General needed to bring the state and Republican Party to court for violating the rights of Americans.
• Texas deliberately confused voters in order to suppress the vote. https://www.revealnews.org/blog/texass-voter-id-law-is-confusing-voters-into-disenfranchising-themselves/ and then their senate seat came within 200,000 votes, in a state with 28 million people.
• Arizona made it hard for citizens to vote as well, and their election is being extremely close. The final numbers are not in as I write this article. It is going to be very close, and still undetermined.

 These three states will likely give the Republicans a 54 seat majority as opposed to a potential 52 seat majority if people had been able to vote.

The Governor's races were even worse:

• Stacey Abrams voters in Georgia were very clearly discriminated against tonight, Kemp has a 3% lead on her, and will likely be elected governor. Voter suppression is one Southern tradition which refuses to die.
• In Ohio, voter purging among other issues significantly reduced turnout for tonight's election. DeWine will win with just over 50% of the vote. He will have the veto pen over redistricting about 18 seats for the House after the 2020 census.
• Iowa has seen neither candidate get a majority in a classic spoiler effect.
• Florida: With massive voter suppression, the Republican is squeaking ahead with a minority of the vote. He will have the veto pen over the redistricting over 27 seats in the Census for the 2020 Census.
• Surprising no one, Alaska is now a Republican Trifecta. This was their biggest gain of the night, besides damage control. This was basically unavoidable.

However, there were many bright spots:

• Michigan: Gretchen Whitmer won! This is a huge step in the right direction, and will prevent Michigan from being gerrymandered in the 2020.
• Nevada: We won the governor's race, picking up a trifecta.
• Wisconsin: Scott Walker is gone! Good riddance.
• Kansas has a Democratic governor again.
• New Mexico is a brand new Trifecta.
• Nevada is a brand new Trifecta.
• Maine is a brand new Trifecta.
• Illinois is a brand new Trifecta.

The worst thing of all about these races for the Senate and Governor's races is that literally every single one of the close Republican victories coinciding with voter suppression has no-excuse absentee voting. We need to get minority voters registered to vote absentee in every state, but particularly on these states where there votes collectively will swing. Not just that, but in every one of these states they can permanently register as a no-excuse absentee voter, meaning they will never have to sit in line again. We should have been doing this aggressively since all of these laws were passed, and this needs to be talked about a lot more. The Democrats basically gave all of these vital positions to the Republicans by not bringing them to court for violating the VRA and not working as hard as possible to get people registered to vote absentee to counter their voter discrimination.

At the state legislative level, some good news:

• Washington: Democrats picked up a seat in the Senate, and 7 more in the House.
• Minnesota: Democrats took the House, we are literally one seat in the Senate from a trifecta in Minnesota now.
• Michigan: we had some gains in both houses, and with the governorship we can now degerrymander. The 2020s will be a Democratic decade for Michigan. Republicans are still in control of the legislature, but Whitmer will veto any gerrymandered district map, making Michigan competitive 4 years from today.
• New Hampshire: Democrats picked up the State House, breaking yet another Republican Trifecta.

And one piece of bad news:

• Republicans picked up a trifecta in Alaska, taking the Senate and the governorship.

When we entered this election cycle, Democrats had 8 trifectas and Republicans held 26. Starting in January Democrats will have 14 trifectas and Republicans will have 23. The ability to push progressive legislation at the state level has now increased significantly in those 5 new trifectas (Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Illinois, New York, and Maine) which will give us an opportunity to make new progressive bills to benefit the United States on many issues.

In summary, the main takeaway points are:

• Taking the House of Representatives for the first time in a decade is a historic event. We can have a full investigation into Trump which will significantly cripple his political power and potentially send him to prison for election manipulation.
• Democrats made several very important improvements by taking the governorships of Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Kansas, Maine, and Illinois.
• Democrats gained trifectas in Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, New York, and Maine.
• Democrats broke Republican trifectas in Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New Hampshire.
• Republicans gained a Trifecta in Alaska.
• Democrats won more overall votes for the Governors which were up for election, and almost certainly won more votes for the House as well. This does not bode well for Trump.

This means that Democrats can make improvements in the states they gained trifectas in, such as:

• Universal mail in voting to ensure people are able to vote, or at a bare minimum so anyone can opt in to a mail in ballot.
• Ensure those states are not gerrymandered after the census in 2 years at a bare minimum. Ideally push for proportional representation.
• Guarantee health coverage to people with pre-existing conditions.
• Improve local transit and AMTRAK.
• Reduce the cost of college.
• Fully fund our schools, and make curricula which are better than what we have currently.
• Implement more progressive tax codes and push for EITC like plans at the state level, which significantly help working class families.

Local Washington State Analysis:

The results are not complete yet, but there are currently several sitting Republicans who might be kicked out of office. The Democrats are guaranteed a majority, but the question is by how much. Half of the Senate is up,  they hold office for 4 years. Every Representative is up for election. Here are the seats which might be flipping:

• 5th LD (East King County): Two House seats could be pickups for the Democrats.
• 6th LD (Spokane County): There is a dead heat between Dave Wilson (D)  and Jenny Graham (R) for the House, it could go either way as late ballots come in. Graham is ahead by 295 votes as of this morning. Currently held by a Republican.
• 10th LD: Dave Paul (D) leads Dave Hayes (R) by 367 votes for the House. Currently held by a Republican.
• 19th LD: Dead heat between Erin Frasier (D) and Jim Walsh (R) for the House. Currently held by Walsh.
• 26th LD (Gig Harbor): Emily Randall (D) leads Mary McClendon (R) by 423 votes for the Senate. Currently Republican
• 28th LD (Fort Lewis/McChord): Mari Leavitt (D) leads incumbent Dick Muri by 676 votes.
• 35th LD (Mason County): The Republicans are all ahead by at least 1000 votes as of right now. (Tim Sheldon has caucused with the Republicans)
• 42nd LD (Whatcom County): All three races are in a dead heat right now and could go either way.
• 47th LD (Auburn): Joe Fain (R) leads by 90 votes. Mark Hargrove (R) will likely be replaced.
• 48th LD (Redmond): Patty Kuderer leads Rodney Tom and will win. Rodney Tom caucused with the Republicans.

What this means for 2020 and 2022

Senate

The Senate was basically a complete clusterfuck. The Republicans should have 52 seats, but they won 54 because of voter discrimination. There are going to be 4 or 5 seats which we can pick up fairly easily in 2020 in Arizona, Iowa, Maine, Colorado, and Georgia. If we get lucky we might be able to pick up West Virginia and North Carolina as well. This means I expect that the Republicans will have probably a maximum of 51 seats after the 2020 election where Democrats pick up Iowa, Maine, and Colorado. The odds of this go up significantly if we have massive campaigns to get voters registered to vote absentee in those 5 states, all of which currently have no-excuse absentee voting to counter their voter suppression. In the very best case scenario where we pick them all up we could have 53 seats in total, and a Trifecta.

What is horrible about this is that without an aggressive ground game to register as many voters as possible as absentee before this election is we could have almost guarantee to have had a Trifecta in 2021 if we had taken Arizona and Florida this week. But because the Democratic Party did not make a major point to register as many people as possible as absentee (because the odds are very much in our favor when it comes to values) before this week's election the chance of having a Trifecta in 2021 is almost null. There were many factors which played in, but the lack of a ground game in those states to get people to become absentee, with phone banking and knocking on doors was the clincher because it would have been so easy to set it up.

House

This will be the last election with districts based on the 2010 census. I expect we will have a small majority because after Trump and co. are going to trial the Republicans will be at a major disadvantage. Reduced gerrymandering in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania due to this week's gubernatorial elections will make the 2020s a lot easier to get Democrats elected to the House. Not having the governorships of Ohio and Florida will make it harder than it needs to be.

Governors

We will probably lose Louisiana next year.

I predict few changes in 2020 for the Governor races. We might be able to pick up Vermont and New Hampshire, and will potentially lose North Carolina. But, North Carolina has no-excuse absentee voting which can counter any voter disenfranchisement, giving us an advantage in North Carolina.

In 2022 the same governors who were elected will be up again. This will be our chance to take Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa. We might be able to get Massachusetts and Maryland as well. These will be won by ensuring voters have access to voting. We will probably lose Kansas.

In the best probable scenario, I predict that in 2023 Democrats will be able to pick up Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Vermont, on top of keeping most of the states we picked up this year, specifically New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine. This will mean 12 more states will have Democratic Governors in 2023 for a total of the 16 we currently have, for 28 in total and a majority of the population of the United States. The stretch goal will be Texas given the slim margin in the Senate this week between O'Rourke and Cruz, especially given changing demographics.

President

Oh yeah, the President. If the election had been held this week, Trump would have lost to almost any candidate. His approval rating is negative in states representing over half the votes of the electoral college. He will likely be the first one term president in 28 years (since George H.W. Bush) due to his sinking popularity and scandals. Democrats only need to pick up Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in order to win. Registering as many voters as possible to vote absentee in Florida, Georgia, and Ohio will significantly help ensure that Trump is a one term president, which given his actions on a wide variety of issues.

The final question is who will be the candidate. Kamala Harris is leading the betting pools right now right behind Donald Trump, with Beto O'Rourke leading  right behind her, and I expect that once the field narrows the Democrat will be on top of the betting pool yet again. Despite this Elizabeth Warren is leading the Democratic Nominee. I highly doubt Joe Biden will run. I would be happy with anyone of these three likely candidates to run, any one of them will easily defeat Trump, and I will support any one of them. My biggest bet is on Kamala Harris right now, given she has a trip booked to Iowa already, and she is very good at her job and would be a fantastic president. She will have no trouble defeating Putin, I mean Trump.

The biggest thing the Democratic Party can do right now to ensure that they win in 2020 is to register voters to vote absentee in (decreasing importance): Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, and Georgia.

Absentee ballot information:

• Georgia (you must register within 180 days of each election): http://sos.ga.gov/index.php/Elections/absentee_voting_in_georgia
• Florida: https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/for-voters/voting/vote-by-mail/
• Ohio (You must register for an absentee ballot for each election): https://www.sos.state.oh.us/elections/voters/absentee-voting/#gref

These are the most important states for the Senate, but for any other state just search " absentee ballot application" on Google to see the rules for your particular state. Most states have this option available. 8 states and DC also allow permanent absentee status. The NCSL has all of the information on the options for your state.

Final takeaway:

It is  not time for compromise. It is not time for backing down. There are serious problems in this country which need to be fixed, and Americans voted in Democrats looking for solutions to problems which plague our lives. Student loans with poor job prospects, the dream that we can get health care in our own country, high quality cities with good transportation, and for the love of God, I can't believe I have to say it in the United States, lead free water. My generation is both extremely angry and extremely optimistic. We have not given up on democracy, we believe very strongly in it. We voted this year, we elected Democrats, and we are going to hold their feet to the fire. I am going to lobby as much as I possibly to make sure we make progress, and get the change that our country needs. I am going to try to work with the Democratic party to make plans to eliminate voter discrimination, enforce the law, and ensure that our votes count. The fact Republicans took the Governorship of Florida significantly hurts our chances of maintaining our majority in the house after redistricting. This is a serious issue, and it must be dealt with.

But for now, don't get complacent, there is much work to be done. We have opportunities to make a big difference now, and now we, the people, need to work to pressure our legislators to do the change we voted for. 2020 is going to be the year we retake the Presidency and maybe the Senate. The 2020s will be bright.

Keep fighting.

Winning strategy 2018 and 2020 for the Democratic Party

2018 is going to be a pivotal year in American politics. The Governors which are elected this year will be able to veto gerrymandered maps following the 2020 census, meaning that the impact of this year will be felt for a minimum of a decade. Being able to take a slight majority in the Senate (getting back to the maximum of 60 seats of 2009-2010 is going to be impossible right now) is going to significantly reduce the power of Donald Trump, protecting America from his homophobic, sexist, racist, and inequality driving policies.

The most important elections this year are without a doubt the local city, county, and state level elections. 87 out of 99 State legislatures are up for election this year, either in full, or in part. Granted, there is a lot of gerrymandering nationwide, but with Trump's approval rating and being accused of federal crimes by his top staff of his campaign team, it is going to be a very hard year for the Republicans. Every person who chooses to run as a Republican this year needs to answer for the President's behavior, and why they choose to associate themselves with someone whose presidency is failing in a way we haven't seen since Richard Nixon. This gives the Democrats a massive advantage.

But, merely running as the anti-Trump party won't be enough, because once Trump is gone we will need to have something to show that we stand for, not just against. We can start by looking at issues the majority of Americans agree on, which I have already written about here.

Particular priorities the Democratic Party can take on which I think will help win elections and gain support are:

• Improve the Affordable Care Act. Increase access to Medicaid, implement a Federal public option for health insurance. Make it so anyone can opt in for Medicaid or Medicare. Increase quality of Medicaid in many states by removing it from state government and make it run like Social Security Old Age Insurance where it doesn't matter which state you live in.
• Paid parental leave for the first 4 weeks of a child's life for both parents and grandparents. Increase the existing tax credit for parental leave to 100% for all businesses and all income levels.
• Implement the high speed train plan Obama proposed in 2009.
• Significantly increase federal subsidies for local transit, and building light rail in major cities across America. Significant federal subsidies if free transit for riders is implemented.
• Free community college tuition for everyone.
• Fully subsidize tuition at every public college.
• Significantly increase number of small business loans.
• Dismantle our nuclear arsenal which wastes tens of billions of dollars per year.
• Set a timeline to end our use of fossil fuels in transportation by 2030.
• No new pipelines in the United States. Respect the treaties with Native American nations.
• Implement a carbon tax which will increase at an exponential rate with no exemptions for any special interest group.
• Have capital gains taxed as regular income. This should balance the budget.
• Have tax rates be determined by an equation with 90% of households getting a negative income tax, and a top tax rate of 50%. Negative income tax for all households below $100,000 per year for a single person. Have adjustments for household size. Proposal available on my blog.
• End the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction which inflates the cost of housing and has no justifiable reason for existing.
• Implement a universal basic income to reduce income inequality.
• Pardon all standing student loans, and pay back all interest which has already been paid since 2008.

I started to write this, and most of the tenants are already on two existing lists. They are on the official Democratic Party Platform for 2016, and  on my annual post about platforms which are based on majority support. Democrats  are winning the generic battle for Congress and Trump's support cannot even reach 40%. The platform is not the issue, and should not see any major changes this year or in 2020, it is already a progressive platform.

The only area where Democrats are doing worse than the GOP is in strategy. The party needs to be more supportive of local candidates first of all, and give them as much support as possible across the country at every level. We need grassroots democracy, because all politics is local, and the greatest Presidents in history start out by being great leaders of their communities.

When it comes to tipping point states, here is a list of states by their electoral college votes sorted by the Cook Partisan Voting Index:

State	Number to ratify	Number of States	Votes	Number needed	Vote in 2016	PVI	Number of Votes	Number needed
Hawaii		50	4	264	D	18	4	264
Vermont		14	3	261	D	15	7	261
California		31	55	206	D	12	62	206
Maryland		7	10	196	D	12	72	196
Massachusetts		6	11	185	D	12	83	185
New York		11	29	156	D	12	112	156
Rhode Island		13	4	152	D	10	116	152
Illinois		21	20	132	D	7	136	132
New Jersey		3	14	118	D	7	150	118
Washington		42	12	106	D	7	162	106
Connecticut		5	7	99	D	6	169	99
Delaware		1	3		R	6	172	96
Oregon		33	7	99	R	5	179	89
Maine		23	4			3	183	85
New Mexico		47	5			3	188	80
Colorado		38	9			1	197	71
Michigan		26	16	99	R	1	213	55
Minnesota		32	10			1	223	45
Nevada		36	6			1	229	39
Virginia		10	13			1	242	26
New Hampshire		9	4		D	0	246	22
Pennsylvania		2	20	99	D	0	266	2
Wisconsin		30	10			0	276	-8

You notice Ohio and Florida? Their votes are unnecessary for winning the Presidential election. We should still try our best to win their Governorships, because that is about 8 seats in the House we can pick up between them, and because we can. Getting more control over their state legislatures will be a really big change in terms of constitutional amendments, growing Democratic leadership for the 20s, and gaining a strong base. To get a constitutional majority to amend the constitution we will need 3/4 of the State legislatures, or 2/3 to call a convention. The states we would need to gain in order to do this on top of the states we need to win the Presidency (from the most conservative to least, again by PVI) would be Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, Texas, Alaska, Indiana,Mississippi, Missouri, Louisiana, Montana, Kansas, and Alabama. In short, any amendment to the constitution will require bipartisan support.

Another bonus for the Presidential election is that Trump has a negative approval rating in every state I listed in the table above, as well as Iowa, Ohio, with North Carolina with a dead heat, given the Democrats a massive advantage to counter his incumbency advantage in 2020.

The biggest message for the Democrats this year, is go big or you will go home.  We need to campaign as much as possible, candidates need to get out and talk to people nationwide, listen to their concerns, have an attitude to solve problems and then next year to succeed in following through.

Governors

The absolute most important races this year are the Governor races in a handful of states. 6 states with very Democratic PVI scores are Vermont, Maryland, Massachusetts, Illinois, Maine, and New Mexico. We can pick up several of these states this year, and we also have a shot at getting Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. If we pick up Governorships in every state which have a PVI which swings towards the Democrats we will have 22 states, by picking up 9 new states (yes, it is that bad). Some of the governors are more moderate and popular, Massachusetts and Maryland will be hard to pick up. This election is the Democrats to win as long as they don't screw up.

Interstate Vote Compact and State Legislatures

The best way to guarantee majority rule in the 2020 election will be to have a majority of states sign onto the Interestate Vote Compact. This will likely be the first step in eliminating the Electoral College altogether.

The good news is when it comes to the Interstate Vote Compact, the 11 most Democratic states have already signed on. We only need the 12 other Democratic leaning states to sign on in order to have a majority in 2020, forcing Trump to win a plurality of the vote in order to win, which is going to be very difficult given the Mueller Investigation which continues to pick people off of his election team faster than he can hire people. Some of these states, Delaware, Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada, have Democratic majorities in both houses and haven't signed the compact yet. If they sign it will add 21 votes to the compact bringing the total to 190 out of the 270 needed. The remaining states which have split legislatures are Maine and Colorado which both have 18 R-17 D in their Senates. New York has a 32-31 R split in their Senate, and we can pick up at least one Senator this year. We just need to pick up one Senator seat in each of these three states and the Governor of Maine (which we will likely get) in order to pick up three valuable Trifectas.

If we could get a few more moderate states to sign on to the Interstate Vote Compact that would go a long ways towards making it pass. This is unlikely because it is almost impossible that it will benefit the Republicans, but the reasoning is that it is better for Democracy because it makes the Presidential election a popular vote as opposed to the Electoral College.

The legislatures with the slimmest Republican majorities (by percentage in both houses) are:

1. Virginia (48% D)
2. Maine (47.6% D)
3. Illinois (47% D)
4. Minnesota (46% D)
5. Nevada (42% D)
6. Arizona (42.5% D)
7. Alaska (42.5% D)
8. Iowa (40.9% D)
9. Mississippi (38.58% D) 
10. Montana (38.5% D)

In order of number of seats we need to pick up in State Houses:

1.  Virginia (1 seat)
2. Arizona (5 seats)
3. Maine (5 seats)
4. Michigan (8 seats)
5. Montana (9 seats)

In order of number of seats we need to pick up in the State Senates:

1.  New York (1 seat) and TRIFECTA
2. Colorado (1 seat) and TRIFECTA
3. Maine (1 seat)
4. Minnesota (1 seat)
5. Virginia (1 seat)
6. Arizona (2 seats)
7. Nevada (2 seats)
8. Wisconsin (3 seats)
9. Alaska (4 seats)
10. Iowa (5 seats)
11. Florida (5 seats)
12. Texas (5 seats)
13. West Virginia (5 seats)
14. South Carolina (5 seats)

I believe if we do this in the next 3 days, Democrats will win this week, and if we continue to push we can win a trifecta in 2020.

State of the Global Economy, October 2018

GE as predictor for the economy. The reason is that when companies want to grow they are going to go to a company like GE for the supplies they need while doing construction. This means that General Electric will be one of the first companies in America to feel the effects of the recession.

This is also what happened in 2007-2008. General Electric's stock crashed just prior to the Great Recession. The reason for this is because companies stopped doing new construction, and stopped ordering from GE. 12 months after GE tanked, the economy went into recession. This did not happen in 2000 because the stock market crash was isolated in tech stocks, it was not a systemic problem like we had in 2007-2008 with the housing bubble crash or the massive trade war which Donald Trump has started over the last 12 months.

When Obama left office on 20 January 2017, we had a very healthy yield curve. Our yield curve is changing at one of the fastest rates in American history. Canada is not looking good, and neither is Mexico. I am fairly certain we will have a recession before the next Presidential election with everything I am reading.

Japan right now has an extremely healthy yield curve. China is becoming steeper (which is good). India has a negative yield curve at the moment. Australia looks healthy. In Europe, Germany and France are both healthy, and the United Kingdom is about to feel the full brunt of Brexit with the uncertainty their stupidity has brought them. Labour and the Liberal Democrats have an opportunity to make the Tories irrelevant for the 2020s. There is no nice way to say it. Russia's economy is unhealthy. On the bright side, it looks like Greece is finally starting to recover from Austerity. Norway looks fine.

Indonesia doesn't look good.

I agree with the EIU that there will likely be a regime change in Venezuela within 2 years. Their yield curve is an absolute horror show.

Colombia's yield curve is steadily improving. Brazil is finally coming out of the darkness from the recession they had last year. Argentina is going to finish the recession they have been going through.



Optimistic

• China
• Japan
• Germany
• France
• Australia
• Colombia
• Brazil
• Vietnam

Confused

• India

Pessimistic

• United States 
• Russia
• Canada
• Mexico 
• 
  

Apocalyptic, the combination of political events and extremely negative bond yield curves make these countries look doomed in the short run.

• United Kingdom
• Venezuela
• Argentina

Finally, when reading these, it is good to take into account that China, the United States, India, Japan, Germany, and Russia account for over half of all global GDP. Only 7 countries, China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, and Nigeria contain half of the global population.

The United States and United Kingdom are in very similar situations right now. Heavily isolationist policies by their governing Republican and Conservative Parties (yes, yes, I know Brexit was a referendum, but the people were misinformed on what it means) have led their countries to ruin. The Republican Party has stood by their President as he burns our trading relationships, and with their political trifecta they have led us to ruin. This is exactly what happened the last time they had a Trifecta, they were kicked out in 2006, at which point the housing bubble was imminently going to pop. GE crashed the next year. The Conservative Party has stood by "Brexit means Brexit" which has dissuaded investment in the United Kingdom with the needless uncertainty which is destroying their economy right now.

When it comes to Canada and Mexico, I think they are responding to the policies of the United States government due to being so heavily intertwined economically. The recession will likely not be as bad as it will be here in the United States, but it is not going to be good.

India is suffering high unemployment, which is nothing new, and corruption has been improving somewhat (they have improved their ease of doing business index) yet for some reason they have a negative bond yield curve, which is a change from a year ago. They have rather high inflation, but is below where it used to be. Be wary of India, but I see no reason for panic.

Argentina has had a fairly severe recession and their government has adopted a pro-cyclical approach to their economic policy by instating austerity. Decades of poor economic mismanagement is catching up with them. It is very sad.

But not nearly as sad and aggravating as how the criminal syndicate United Socialist Party under Maduro and Chavez has led Venezuela to ruin. They have trampled the human rights of their country, turned themselves into an oil state, mismanaged those funds (as is so fucking common) and now their economy is crashing, with little hope of recovery before a revolution or coup kills him. Hopefully it comes soon so that Venezuelans can recover from the travesty they have caused. The inflation and depression is Weimar Republic levels. Their yield curve reflects it. There is no good reason anything should have anything but disdain for what they have done to their country.

There you have it. I don't know if my theory about General Electric is correct or not, but given everything else it seems likely. There are some parts of the world with reason to be optimistic, others less so. Hopefully politicians will make decisions to improve overall wealth and health of nations, and that those who have not will get the punishment they deserve proportional to their crimes.

Yield curves are available at www.investing.com

Mueller needs to tells us what happened

Inspired by:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/19/mueller-investigation-findings-914754

There are two possibilities with the release of the Mueller probe:

• either the Mueller Report does not include damning information on Donald Trump, hence would not effect the election and there is no reason to wait until afterwards,
• The Mueller Report in its full context includes a smoking gun with proof of Russian influence in our election to the point of swinging the most important election in the second largest economy in the world, information which would impact the American people's decision in November.

What we know

This is not opening a fraudulent congressional investigation days before the election which  is closed as soon as the target of the investigation loses.

This is an investigation spanning over 30 years of very complex relationships between the President of the United States and the President of Russia, the evidence of which is undeniable.

This is an investigation into whether a foreign power hacked into American elections in an attempt to swing the election in full.

We know for a fact that the counties which Russia targeted in 2016 turned out to be pivotal for the Presidential election.

James Clapper, former Director of National Intelligence, claims “It stretches credulity to conclude that Russian activity didn’t swing voter decisions.”

We know for a fact that the Russians changed voter rolls across America.

Conclusion

There are now two potential options of what happened 2 years ago:

• The Russian government developed a long, deep, and complicated relationship with the Republican Candidate for President of the United States, swung voter decisions in key states, going through enormous expense and energy, but not to impact the election when they had a very clear preference.

Or:

• The Russian government successfully groomed an American multimillionaire, helped him become a billionaire, effectively targeted voters filling our social media feeds with lies masquerading as news stories in order to get a President who will do what they want.

It think it is pretty obvious no one would ever go to the extent and lengths Russia went through. I believe the numerous national security advisors.

I believe it is now Robert Mueller's duty to his country with the immense amount of evidence he has done, to present it to the American people in time for us to make our decisions with full information proving (or, however unlikely, disproving) the immense suspicion millions of Americans like myself have that the Russian government did.

This is not the same thing as opening a Kangaroo court days before a major historic election against one of the candidates, with absolutely no intention of finishing it. This is presenting the American people with facts which we can use to make our decisions so we can get the right people elected as governor, legislators, representatives, and senators in three weeks. The consequence of withholding important information from the election is itself a political ploy which protects those who have (possibly) deeply harmed the United States of America, keeping them in power. That would be unpatriotic to allow such criminals off the hook and let them stay in positions of power to do even more damage to our democracy. It is downright cruel to the People of the United States for us to keep having a government which does not represent us, and keep us in the dark when there are elected officials who have very likely harmed us. Information is one of the most valuable and important pieces in an election, as important as the way you count the ballots. More information (as long as it is accurate) is always better for democracy.

We deserve to know.

America needs to know the truth to protect ourselves.

This is a the biggest national security issue of my life.

Release the probe.

Previous articles I have personally written:

• https://stidmatt-views.blogspot.com/2018/09/why-putin-hates-obama.htm
• https://medium.com/@matthewstidham/swing-counties-9e0444e8cece?fbclid=IwAR04vs5_9p-Dns2ntzms1HdyLdm8P7XVV3xD-9nfPbrlVjZoZWJUQ8TSUOw

References:

• https://www.wired.com/story/did-russia-affect-the-2016-election-its-now-undeniable/
• http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/07/trump-putin-russia-collusion.html
• https://www.vox.com/2018/5/31/17384444/james-clapper-trump-russia-mueller-2016-election?fbclid=IwAR1zTtpuihMsvLXu0H98Vtloeio0-bLpQELQbXOw1TJuVU8DAs4tbAPc7_I
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/without-the-russians-trump-wouldnt-have-won/2018/07/24/f4c87894-8f6b-11e8-bcd5-9d911c784c38_story.html?fbclid=IwAR1s8RdqXur4z8Uk4wnXUujyVOylRpinB3RxiR-XpybqzjXcwIACKjncXfY&utm_term=.2ccf30b18888

Random musings, week 3 of October 2018

• Native Americans are being denied the vote in South Dakota
• African Americans are being pulled off of buses on their way to vote
• Elizabeth Warren announces her DNA test at the same time as Native Americans are being denied the right to vote.
• Trump is under trial in New York State for tax evasion
• There is a pending case in front of the Supreme Court to give the President the ability to pardon state level crimes
• After racking up hundreds of billions of dollars in debt, the Republicans are now targeting Medicare and Medicaid.
• The Mueller Probe is ongoing.
• Ryan Zinke, Secretary of the Interior, is under investigation.
• US banned visas for same-sex partners of diplomats
• Hundreds of voting polls have been closed before the upcoming election, mostly targeting minorities. https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/kz58qx/how-the-gutting-of-the-voting-rights-act-led-to-closed-polls
• Washington State Legislature is held by the Democrats by a thread, this election could significantly increase their advantage after record primaries with people voting for Democrats. Democrats have a 25-23-Sheldon majority in the Senate and a 50-48 majority in the House.
• Republican Governors are up in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. They will be able to approve or veto redistricting maps which will impact their state legislatures and about 100 representatives in the US house from the 2022 to 2030 elections.
• The Colorado Legislature is the closest legislature in America today, and half of the Senate is up for election in three weeks, and every seat in the House. Republicans have a 18-16-1 seat majority in the Senate right now. Democrats have a 36-29 majority in the House.
• The US representative seat from Alaska is essentially a toss-up, among many other traditionally Republican seats.
• The way we name our house districts is the way the French do it (State - #), Commonwealth countries and Germany call their districts by the name of their location (Abbotsford).

Republican State governors projected to flip by Nate Silver:

• Iowa
• Michigan
• Illinois
• Maine
• New Mexico

Republican Governors in toss-up territory:

• Nevada
• Kansas
• Wisconsin
• Ohio
• Florida
• Georgia

Every Democratic Governor is safe.

This would mean that the governorships will be divided 50/50 with 25 governorships being held by each party. More Americans will be in Democratic states though, so more seats in the House during the 2020 redistricting will be signed or vetoed by a Democratic Governor. Having more favorable legislature maps for the Democrats will have impacts on every issue in America, and effect everybody's lives.

There is a lot going on. It is easy to get overwhelmed.

But, when you get your ballot, remember to vote. That is how we are going to fix the problems this article starts with.

Kavanaugh is a disgrace, and just the beginning

I watched almost the entire Kavanaugh hearing today, and I am convinced that he is lying, and that Dr. Christine Blassey Ford is telling the truth. There is literally no way anyone would go through the hell that Dr. Ford went for, openly calling for an FBI investigation, in front of a Senate committee, knowing full and well that if she is lying she will be incarcerated. Kavanaugh is hoping that the Republican desire to get the first Conservative Supreme Court in a literal century will pave his way to the highest court in the land, just like Clarence Thomas, where he will take away the ability of people to get access to birth control.  On top of this, Senator Grassley is having a bad memory for time since the hearings only started on the 4th of September, he claimed that they have been going on for two months.

On top of all of that, his behavior is abhorrent while Dr. Ford's behavior was dignified. He faked cried his way through a Supreme Court nomination hearing, which was a disgrace to our democracy and an insult to our country. It was very clear that he feels entitled to a seat in the Supreme Court, because his party is in power and he can use it to reduce access to health care, reduce environmental regulations, end net neutrality, whittle away our 4th amendment protections, and reduce access to our legal protections to non-citizens.

Brett Kavanaugh currently has not just one accusation but three coming against him. He has provided no reason to believe him, fake sobbing his way through his hearing like a little baby. If I had gone down the path to get my JD (which is something I have seriously considered multiple times) and my career landed me to be at a Senate hearing to be in the highest court of the land I would treat everyone with the utmost respect, and be as honest as truthful as possible. Judge Kavanaugh was neither. He acted like a child the whole time, lied to Senators, and if there is an FBI investigation, as there needs to be, and is found to have been lying is going to be in so much legal trouble that he will never coach girls volleyball again. This is as creepy as the head of Miss USA being accused of sexual assault by multiple women we know he had contact with. Sexual predators seek out such opportunities to rape children, as Brett Kavanaugh and Donald Trump do. It's too obvious a coincidence to not point out.

He will have far more to worry about whether he will be able to coach girls going through puberty again if he is found to be lying.

To make it clear, not everyone who coaches child sports is a predator, the coaches I had in soccer were really good people who really taught us and have absolutely no criminal records. But then there is that small subsection of people who spend a lot of time around minors like Brett Kavanaugh and Donald Trump who are absolutely creepy.

This leads us to the political question, what should the Republican party do? They have three choices, none of which look appealing:

1. Keep going through with the Kavanaugh appointment, try to get him on the court. Two things can happen in this circumstance:
1.  If all of the Republicans vote for him, he will be appointed under current rules by a very slim majority, and they will have packed the court. Voters will know that and they will punish the party in November more than we already will. They will be punished severely and have trouble getting Congress and the Presidency in the future.
2. If just two Republicans defect, who will most likely be Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, then Kavanaugh will not be confirmed. They will need to select a new nominee and go through the entire procedure again. They have 98 days until the new Congress is inaugurated, and inaugurating a SCOTUS judge in late December does not look good at all. They will need to have everyone on board, or lose their opportunity. If they lose two seats in the Senate this November, the Republican loses its opportunity for an appointment for the foreseeable future.
2. Go through with the FBI Investigation, and they find that Kavanaugh is guilty or not.
1. If Kavanaugh is guilty he will be arrested, be a convicted felon for both rape and lying to a Senate committee. He will never see the light of day again. It's the end of October and they don't have time to thoroughly vet a nominee to the highest court in the land.
2. If Kavanaugh is found innocent (which I think is highly unlikely) than his nomination goes through. But, given the logic above, this is almost certainly not going to happen.
3. Decide that Kavanaugh is too politically toxic and President Trump appoints his next choice. The appointee is approved in late November or early December, assuming there are no more scandals, and they get their best choice. There is an 80%+ probability voters will have already voted in a Democratic House at this point in time.

The best option for the Republicans is to just dump Kavanaugh, let the FBI go do their investigation on him because he is still on the DC Circuit, and appoint the next choice of Donald Trump. Trump looks really bad for appointing a rapist, and his credibility is reduced to basically nothing. This is at the same time as the Mueller Investigation continues to arrest members of his campaign staff for collusion with the Russian Government, and lying to the FBI. The Mueller Investigation will likely find strong evidence that Trump himself has been involved in this, and given the number of people on his staff who have been found guilty of serious crimes, their is no way Trump had absolutely nothing to do with all of the corruption which has been exposed already. A President undergoing an FBI investigation being found guilty nominating a Supreme Court Justice doesn't look good for the Republican Party. It is also likely that Mueller will find evidence of Republican members of Congress involved in the ongoing corruption as well. This gives them two choices:

1. Defend Trump. They are obstructing justice and everyone but the most ardent Fox News viewer is completely furious at what is happening to our country. They punish them severely at the polls.
2. Do nothing. The American people see this is as implicity collusion with Trump, see above. They are brutally punished by voters in 2020 for collusion. Mueller starts investigating key members of Congress for collusion and likely finds evidence.
3. Impeach Trump. Trump becomes the first President in American history to be impeached and convicted, he leaves office, is thrown in jail and Mike Pence becomes President. If Mike Pence is found guilty in the Mueller Probe as well, which is most probable than it goes to the Speaker of the House.
1. If the impeachment is done before 3 January 2019 the most incompetent little prep school kid to ever sit as Speaker of the House Paul Ryan becomes President. He will be as effective a President as he is Speaker and embarrasses his party. It is highly unlikely that
2. If the impeachment is done after 3 January 2019 there is a greater than 80% probability according to Five Thirty Eight right now, than Nancy Pelosi becomes the first female President of the United States of America.

The Kavanaugh pick was one of the most foolish decisions the Republican Party has chosen, and will likely be the final straw. With no fewer than 3 people accusing him of raping them in the past, this is going to significantly hurt their credibility in the eyes of millions of Americans. With the ongoing Special Council Investigation

Case docket:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Telecom_Ass%27n_v._FCC_(2016)
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Jones
• EPA v. EME Homer City Generation, L.P. (2014)
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiyemba_v._Bush
•  

References:

• https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2017/senate/ideology 
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Counsel_investigation_(2017%E2%80%93present)

This is a lot to take in, here is a brief timeline on how we got here regarding how Kavanaugh got to this point and the ongoing Mueller investigation:
Timeline:

• 7 November 2000: President Al Gore wins the popular vote.
• 12 December 2000: Bush v Gore is decided, ending the Florida Recount, awarding Governor George W. Bush the Presidency.
• 20 January 2000: President George W. Bush takes office.
• 6 June 2003: Brett Kavanaugh became the White House Staff Secretary under President George W. Bush.
• 30 May 2006: Judge Brett Kavanaugh is appointed by President George W. Bush as a Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
• 4 November 2008: Senator Barack Obama is elected President of the United States.
• 6 August 2009: Sonia Sotomayor replaces David Souter on the Supreme Court.
• 6 August 2010: Elena Kagan replaces John Paul Stevens on the Supreme Court.
• 2 November 2010: Republicans win control of the House, first time since 2004.
• 6 November 2012: President Barack Obama is re-elected as President.
• 4 November 2014: Republicans win control of the Senate, first time since 2004.
• 23 March 2015: Ted Cruz declares his candidacy, first Republican to do so.
• 26 June 2015: Donald Trump declares his candidacy
• 1 February 2016: First primary
• 13 February 2016: Antonin Scalia dies, opening the possibility of a solid liberal Supreme Court majority. Speaker Paul Ryan and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell promise to not approve any appointee of President Obama.
• 16 March 2016: President Obama appoints Judge Merrick Garland to fill Justice Scalia's seat.
• 3 May 2016: Trump becomes Presidential nominee of the Republican Party.
• 8 November 2016: Trump wins the electoral college, Clinton wins the popular vote. The first Republican Trifecta since the 2004 election is formed.
• 3 January 2017: Congress starts its current session, a 52 seat majority in the Senate, and a 241 seat majority in the House. With one Supreme Court vacancy and over 100 Federal court vacancies this is one of the most potentially powerful congresses in history.
• 20 January 2017: Trump is inaugurated as President
• 31 January 2017: Trump nominates Neil Gorsuch to fill Justice Scalia's seat.
• 7 April 2017: Neil Gorsuch is approved by the Senate.
• 17 May 2017: The Special Counsel Investigation begins
• 5 October 2017: George Papadopolus pleads guilty to false statements.
• 27 October 2017: Rick Gates is found guilty in conspiracy against the United States.
• 1 December 2017: Michael Flynn pled guilty for making false statements.
• February 2018: 13 Russian citizens and 3 Russian entities are indicted by Bob Mueller.
• 2 February 2018: Richard Pinedo pled guilty to identity fraud.
• 16 February 2018: Alex van der Zwann pled guilty to making false statements to the FBI
• 16 February 2018: Numerous Russians and are found to have committed Conspiracy to Defraud the United States.
• 8 June 2018: Konstantin Kilimnik is indicted by Mueller. 
• 21 June 2018: Justice Anthony Kennedy announces his retirement, putting SCOTUS at a 4-4 split between liberal and conservative judges.
• 9 July 2018: Brett Kavanaugh is appointed to the Supreme Court, his appointment would be the first solid Conservative Supreme Court in 100 years. 
• 13 July 2018: Fancy Bear from GRU are indicted for hacking the Democratic National Committee.
• 31 July 2018: Justice Anthony Kennedy's retirement comes into effect.
• August 2018: Manafort was found guilt on eight felony counts by the Special Council Investigation. Flynn pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI. Rick Gates, Alex van der Zwann
• 4 September 2018: Senate Judiciary Committee starts its hearings. 
• 14 September 2018: Paul Manafort pled guilty in conspiracy against the United States.
• 16 September 2018: Dr. Christine Blasey Ford accused Kavanaugh of raping her in high school.
• 23 September 2018: Deborah Ramirez accused Brett Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct.
• 26 September 2018: Julie Swetnick accused Mark Judge and Kavanaugh of committing gang rape against her.
• 27 September 2018: Brett Kavanaugh and Dr. Ford have a hearing with the Senate Judiciary Committee.

This is only a timeline of the Special Counsel Investigation and how the Supreme Court got to this point. I've left out the legislative activity and economic changes which have happened in this time period.

Dizzy yet?

It's just getting started.

Why Putin hates Obama

Introduction and rankings

No relationship of world leaders of the 21st century reaches the sheer scale of the animosity and importance between President Vladimir Putin and President Barack Obama. The reasons are vast, Putin has cultivated a cult of personality over the last 18 years and used religion to cement his power, Obama on the other hand was raised Unitarian Universalist and goes to a liberal Christian church, mentioning God in his speeches from time to time, but keeps his faith very personal. Putin has overseen a gross reduction of rights for LGBT people in Russia while Obama decided to stop defending the Defense of Marriage Act in court and overturned Don't Ask Don't Tell. The Supreme Court Justices he appointed decided that gay marriage would be the law of the land.

Russia and the United States are very different political cultures. My favorite index for ranking democracies is the Democracy Index because it has the most variables which are calculated from a wide variety of experts around the world. When it comes to the Democracy Index, America under Obama started at 8.22/10, and ended in 2016 with a score of 7.98/10. The main reason for this decline is Functioning of Government and Political Participation. I suspect this mostly has to do with Congress who refused to work with Obama on even the most fundamental and basic of all duties such as passing a budget. The image this sent the American people hurt our nation dearly, and the Republicans will hopefully pay this year for their behavior. Russia on the other hand has a score of 3.17/10, scoring poorly on every metric. America is ranked as a flawed democracy (which is from 6-8) and Russia is ranked as Authoritarian. We can get back up to a full democracy, but is going to take hard work.

Political experts in the United States are generally fairly certain that our votes are counted accurately. Political experts in Russia know the system is rigged. This is reflected in our Democracy Index scores.

Importance compared to other major International Relations

The relationship between the United States and Russia matters a lot, America has the second largest economy in the world (behind China due to the growth of their economy), and Russia has the 6th largest. The three between us are India, Japan, and Germany. China is our 3rd largest trading partner, India is a military ally of the United States, a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Japan is a Major Non-NATO ally, and Germany is a member of NATO.

During the Obama administration, both China and the United States worked hard to keep our relationship friendly despite major disputes and ideological differences. China has even cooperated with the United States some on North Korea, though not as much as we would like. Despite the United States officially once recognizing the Republic of China as the rightful government of all of China the People's Republic of China and the United States are as friendly as possible. This is while China has an authoritarian rating with the Democracy Index and is ranked 176/180 on the Freedom of the Press Index, which keeps us from being closer. China also maintains fairly friendly relations with Russia. The American-Chinese relationship is exceedingly complex, and deserves an article of its own.

Russia is the largest country the United States has major diplomatic challenges with.

Differences in human rights in detail

When it comes to human rights this is where the differences between the United States come into full focus. The United States has some real challenges with the spying on Americans and our allies without their knowledge under the PATRIOT ACT, police brutality, and racism, which Russia has as well. But still, when a journalist is arrested in America it makes headlines, and in Russia it is practically normal. America is ranked as a satisfactory situation under the Press Freedom Index, Russia is ranked as a difficult situation. I can write publicly on Twitter that I think Trump is a total traitor who deserves to be arrested. His own staff while being in court can openly say that Trump told them to do illegal things, and that is not why they will be in jail for the rest of their lives, it will be because they actually did such things. It also significantly degrades Trump's legitimacy and political power. This never happens in Russia. The case of Edward Snowden is unusual, particularly that he fled the country. Chelsea Manning was pardoned for a crime of releasing classified documents by the same administration which prosecuted her. America is very different from Russia. Obama is the polar opposite of Putin.

When it comes to gay rights, America's highest court legalized gay marriage nationwide while gay men in Chechnya are being slaughtered.

There are prison camps in Russia where North Koreans are held, and the United States has the largest prison population in the world. This is probably the biggest similarity between the United States and Russia. This is however differs wildly state by state, ranging from less than 200 per 100,000 inhabitants in Maine to over 900 per 100,000 in Louisiana. This is partly due to Federalism. This again deserves a series of articles by itself, it is a huge, wildly complex, and important topic.

There is one other index which I find comes close to the diversity of the Democracy Index, and that is the Social Progress Index. This also measures across a wide variety of factors and then averages them all together (with weighting) to get a clearer picture of how every country in the world is doing compared to every other. The USA does fairly well as the 18th country in the world with a score of 86.43 out of 100. We fall the most when it comes to the Tolerance and Inclusion dimension (which should surprise no one), and our Health and Wellness score is 75/100 (which again, should surprise no one). Russia is ranked 67th in the world, with a score of 67.17 out of 100. They are worst at personal rights and tolerance and inclusion. Both the USA and Russia do best at nutrition and access to basic medical care. This also is not surprising given the massive food surplus in the world today.

The important difference between the Social Progress Index and Democracy Index is that they are focusing on measuring different things. The Democracy Index is focused only on the freedom of the people, it is not based on economic data at all. Social Progress Index takes into account freedom, but also general material well being.

With such large differences between our human rights across most metrics it is no wonder the United States and Russia have a strained relationship.

Foreign Relationships

When President Obama was in office, he had a foreign policy which was focused on expanding American influence in the world, building relationships with former adversaries, and building strong trading relationships to reduce the probability of war in the future. He and Secretary Clinton traveled to almost every country in the world.

Secretary Clinton Travel Map 

President Obama Travel Map

War on Terror

Iraq was one of the most important relationships of his presidency since we were in a vicious war in the beginning of his term. He gave Iraq strict deadlines in which to get their country functional upon entering office, which allowed us to significantly draw down our presence there, and forcing the government to be more responsible than they were in the 2000s. It is still one of the most corrupt countries in the world, and the rise of ISIS has put the country under an immense amount of pressure. We still have troops in Iraq and until there is significant nation building in the country that is unlikely to change.

In regards to Afghanistan, the war still has not ended as of 2018. President Obama significantly reduced the number of American troops in Afghanistan, but we have a continued presence. Afghanistan needs significant nation building, with institutions such as education since their literacy rate is only 38.2%, the government needs to make it easier to do business in the country, and the presence of Islamic radicals in Helmand province is an ongoing threat. Afghanistan has all of the factors to increase the probability of terrorism which need to be targeted. President Obama succeeded in taking out Osama bin Laden, but many pieces of nation building still need to occur.

The War on Terror is not going to end any time soon.

Middle East and Iran

The Middle East was a major source of tension between President Obama and Putin. With the growing Arab Spring, the possibility of Syria moving towards a democratic government would have removed Russia's only Mediterranean military port, significantly reducing Russian influence in the region, leaving America with strong allies in practically every other country on the coast. This was unacceptable to Putin's realpolitik policy, and instead of trying to keep Syria as an ally under a change of dictatorship made the decision to support Assad as much as possible for as long as possible. We ended up then with a proxy war against the three great powers of the Middle East. One is the United States of course, who supports the rebels, Putin of course supports Assad, and Saudi Arabian plutocrats support ISIS according to a memo sent by Secretary Clinton to President Obama.  The war continue to move on, and this will be continued in the section on Trump's Presidency.

Iran is the other major conflict between Putin and Obama in the Islamic World. After the Shah was overthrown in 1979, the United States had very poor relations with the Iranian government until the zenith of President Obama's term. After years of economic isolation from two the of the world's largest economies, the President and the European Union went to Iran to get them to accept international nuclear inspectors and stop building a nuclear bomb. This deal succeeded, Iran signed, and sanctions were lifted. This was a major blow to both Saudi Arabia and to Russia. Iran and Syria had been Russia's two major allies in the region after the fall of Saddam Hussein (who had support of the Soviets for decades) and they had both been isolated from the United States. Bringing them both to a place where they can cooperate with both Russia and the United States would mean that Russia wouldn't be their sole military partner.

Losing both allies in the Middle East would have made Russian military power in the region diminish significantly. While the United States has a mixed record on our alliances, we have major democracies like Canada, all of the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc. etc., we also have allies like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Israel, and more with problematic human rights accords, who maintain power through force.

Russia has no such allies. There is no country in the world which has a strong democracy and a strong economy which has a military alliance with Russia. In this way, the closest alliances of both countries mirror that of their closest partner. America's most important alliances are all democracies, Russia's are all dictatorships, and the list is short. The list of countries which have significantly closer relations to Russia than the United States are Belarus, Syria, Iran, Kazakhstan, North Korea, and Uzbekistan. None of these countries are full democracies, and are all seriously corrupt. They all maintain power by crushing all dissent with an iron fist. This strategy does work in the short term, because Russia has military alliances with all of them, but they survive by keeping the people down. As soon as the people of these countries have a voice, it usually ends up like a deja vu from 1989-1991 once again, and they choose to not be friendly with their former overlord.

For Putin this has a major historical and geographical dimension. Despite having a low GDP per capita, and no good port access, Russia was one of two dominant powers in the world for half of the 20th century. After the people got a voice across Eastern Europe that is no longer the case. The crash has been incredible, and Putin is seeing his iron fist policy merely push countries further into the European Union. Ironically, the growth of the European Union might not have been so fast in the 2000s if Putin hadn't scared them all away. But Realpolitik is the only lens which he can see the world through. He fully believes there cannot be mutual gains. On top of this problem, Russia has a terrible economy based on natural resources despite having a highly educated population. Despite a literacy rate of almost 100%, Russia is a lower middle income country with their only good port being Vladivostok, a rather small city as far from the capital as possible on the Sea of Japan. Murmansk is iced in for half the year, ships from St. Petersburg has to go through Danish (NATO) waters to go anywhere, and Sochi is not very small and any ships have to go through the Strait of Hormuz (NATO) to get to the Mediterranean, where almost every country on the northern shore is once again a member of NATO. Watching the former colonies of his country ally themselves with the United States and choose to not be allied with Russia at all is a sign of the further fall of Russia into geopolitical obscurity.

Obama's making peace with Iran, further projecting American geopolitical influence right into the heart of what used to be solid Russian territory is a throwback to the end of the USSR when Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan countered the Soviet expansion with the Mujahideen (Taliban), which was the beginning of the end for Communism. Losing not just all of Eastern Europe but also their only two allies in the Middle East, with no prospects for new alliances anywhere in the world makes Putin scared. This is the main reason he retaliated in 2015-2016.

Europe

President Obama had high approval ratings in Western Europe for his entire presidency. He supported the European Union, and worked on building the TTIP with the European Union. The TTIP was complicated in a lot of different ways, and is worth another article. I personally feel like the TTIP wasn't a true Free Trade Agreement and was more about extending copyright and patent terms in the European Union to be the length they are in the United States, among other problems. The European Union was a major partner in the Iran agreement, and Obama supported the accession to the European Union of numerous Eastern European states.

President Obama refused to criticize Britain for leaving the European Union, but instead stated they will both remain close partners of the United States for a long time to come.

The closeness of President Obama and the European Union is most clearly shown with the Iran nuclear deal, which is probably his most important foreign policy achievement.

This is the biggest reason I believe Putin hated Obama out of everything else. Putin is a nationalist and sees Eastern Europe as solely part of the Russian sphere of influence. Under the Bush and Obama administrations, Russian influence in Eastern Europe has waned significantly as the majority of the population in country after country vote to join the European Union. The only countries in Eastern Europe which are not member states of the European Union or currently in the membership process are Kosovo, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Russia. Belarus is a member of Russia's Union State, and have been under the dictator Lukashenko since 1994. If Ukraine had succeeded in joining the European Union, the Russian sphere of influence would have collapsed. In response to the seemingly unavoidable collapse of the Soviet sphere of influence Putin invaded Ukraine, and bolstered the brutal regime of Assad.

But here is where Putin has been sowing the seeds of his own destruction, just as communism did: as soon as the people of any country Russia has had a strong alliance with get a voice, they always choose to move towards the American sphere of influence. American influence is strong not because we are holding a gun to the heads of our allies, but because we have strong relationships beyond military. We trade with our partners in every type of good, we have cultural exchanges for students, we help build most of our allies with institutions which grow their economies. The Marshall Plan worked because it built Europe up, giving them all strong democracies which have stood the test of time. Yes, we have strong military alliances, but when a country decides they don't want to participate in a war we have started, we don't cut them out. That is why the 21st century is the second American century in a row. President Obama made this a guarantee by building our relationships in Europe to be the strongest the world has ever known.

East Asia

While maintaining close relations with the European Union, President Obama also moved what he called America's "pivot to Asia". This included increasing economic and military ties with almost every country in the region. This is yet one more region of the world where economies gained increased access to one of the largest economies in the world, further cornering the Russian sphere in Putin's eyes.

Americas

There is only one country in the Americas which Russia has a strong alliance with which is not at complete risk from internal problems, and that is Cuba. The travel ban of the United States only pushed Cuba closer into Russia's grip and prevented the people from having the necessary tools to gain things such as a free press which they had lacked. American tourism and tourism to the United States is probably the biggest foreign policy tool the United States has, because when intellectual Americans travel around the world we can talk about the truth of what it is like in the United States, increasing American power abroad. Eliminating the travel ban was going to push Cuba back in to America's sphere of influence and doom the communist government in the long term if that had been allowed to continue. Given the brutality of Castro, it is highly unlikely that the Cuban people would freely choose to go back to the Russian sphere of influence.

Magnitsky Act

On top of everything else, President Obama signed the Magnitsky Act with bipartisan approval. Sergei Magnitsky had been investigating corruption in Russia for over a few years and had been arrested, being (definitely wrongly) accused of committing fraud himself. He was beaten in the prison he was being held in while he suffered from cancer, for which he received no treatment. He died in 2009. Bill Browder went to Congress to get support and convinced Senators John McCain (R - AZ) and Benjamin Cardin (D - MD) to cosponsor it, after which it passed easily.

Putin's response

Perhaps the most amazing thing of all, is that after the very successful foreign policy of President Barack Obama, the next candidate would be his Secretary of State, who fostered strong relationships with over 100 countries across the world, building strong economic and military ties with as many as possible. It was known by about 2015 that she would run, and Putin knew that if President Clinton served her term that it would just mean stronger alliances for America, and Russian influence at the point of a gun would decline. More travel between the US and Cuba, closer ties with the EU, the Balkan states, Ukraine, and the Caucuses. Perhaps worse of all is if America had been able to bring peace between the Armenians, Turks, and Azeri governments that would give America political dominance in the Caucuses. To make matters worse, American sanctions in response to Russian persecution of journalists with the Magnitsky Act

Putin saw the writing on the wall and he recruited the richest American billionaire who he had close ties with, the reality TV star Donald Trump. At least one meeting is known about, which he had on 9 June 2016 with Natalia Veselnitskaya with his top campaign staff. It is hard to believe it is the only one which occured given his long standing business relations which stretch all the way back since 1986 with the Kremlin and Russian Plutocrats. Trump is very malleable, and by using advertising on Facebook and Google, which are fairly apolitical organizations and really just give people what they want to see, was able to get Donald Trump to become the Republican nominee and narrowly win the Electoral College through election manipulation. I suspect the corruption between the Republican Party and United Russia goes far deeper, though I have no proof yet. Getting voter disenfranchisement laws and manipulating the vote in key states in the Midwest worked and got his man into the White House.

Everything Trump has done thus far has been to increase Russian influence. He insults our allies to weaken our bonds, threatens NAFTA which binds us to our neighbors, and is working to stop American military support of Western Europe. The European Union could probably win a war against Russia given their superior economy and larger population, but with the United States as well the war would be over within a year with an absolute victory over Moscow and the overthrowing of the Russian government. American influence turns a fair fight into a slaughter.

By reducing our commitment to investing in renewable energy it further weakens the European Union who are dependent on Russia for natural gas which is what fuels the Russian economy. An oil future is a Putin future. Removing us from the Paris Agreement further achieves this aim.

Stoking the fire of our relationship with Palestine puts Israel at risk, threatening American influence in the Middle East, and is done so haphazardly to not make any new friends.

The trade war with China leaves China with only Russia, ending their standing as the middle power between Russia and the United States. All which needs to happen now is a revamping of the military alliance of China and Russia and Russia is back on the world stage as a major player, South Korea is crushed and Japan has no chance in a Russo-Chinese invasion in revenge for the Rape of Nanking and Invasion of Manchuria. American influence in East Asia would be gone with the invasion of Taiwan in such an incident.

As soon as Trump became President he ended the tough talk on taking out ISIS by ending American support of Syria's rebels, giving Putin control over Syria.

His ending of the Nuclear Accord of Iran thrusts Iran back into the Russian sphere of influence. A Russo-Iranian military alliance will project power into Iraq, reversing the oil war Bush started.

I'm not quite sure how his deal with North Korea benefits Russia, that might be the one thing he has done which actually does benefit the United States.

In conclusion, so many of Trump's actions play right into the hands of Vladimir Putin, while one of these actions would not be enough to make me suspect that Trump is a pawn of Vladimir Putin the combination of his decisions regarding China, Israel/Palestine, Syria, and all of Europe all serve to increase Russian influence in those regions to the detriment of America and the people who live there. On top of this, there is proof that Russia bought online ads to support Trump and we know for a fact that high ranking Russian officials were in Trump Tower before the election.

This is too much to be a coincidence. I have absolutely no doubt that Trump was hired by Putin to undo all of the gains President Obama made to increase American diplomatic power which Trump has been doing for almost 2 years now.

Trump must be removed as soon as possible. A lot of people will die if he is not impeached.

References

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Russian_interference_in_the_2016_United_States_elections
• Democracy Index, eiu.com
• Wikipedia for statistics, maps, and membership lists of IOs.
• Years of studying the topic, and this is just a blog post.
• Social Progress Index: https://www.socialprogressindex.com/
• IPSOS Ranking of Presidents: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/2017-01/Obama_and_Trump_Slides.pdf
• White House announcement on Brexit: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2016/06/24/president-obama-uk-decision-leave-european-union
• https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/03/connections-trump-putin-russia-ties-chart-flynn-page-manafort-sessions-214868