Sunday, December 1, 2024

It started with Mexico

Mexico was an official US ally from 1948 to 2004 as a member of the Rio Pact. We then became closer with the signing of NAFTA in 1994 which made Mexico one of only two countries with both a mutual protection pact and a free trade agreement with the United States.

By any metric, Mexico was one of America's closest allies. There were work visas available for farm workers coming to this country, and relations were good.

When Bush came into office, one of the first things he did was have to respond to the 9/11 attack and the way he did so was by appropriating funds to investigate who attacked us, discover and dismantle the financial support for terrorism around the world, track down and kill suppliers of weapons, and strategically implement more rigorous visa investigations on countries where the terrorists were from. By dismantling terrorist networks politically, economically, and militarily the Taliban was permanently weakened and terrorism is far less of a threat today compared to 20 years ago.

Just kidding. He decided that instead of doing all that he was going to implement visas on our allies and end the farm worker visa program. He also decided to follow Netanyahu's advice without further investigation and start a brand new war in Iraq which led to the rise of ISIS and reduced support to stabilize Afghanistan. This colossal failure has been a major gift to terrorists around the world.

Netanyahu and Putin have a special relationship, and Israel has provided no military support to Ukraine, despite Ukraine being the only other country with a Jewish head of state and Jewish head of government. This is odd.

By doing this, Mexicans rightfully feel like they were being discriminated against, and they are right, which led to Mexico resigning from the Rio Pact and our relations have not recovered since.

Russia followed up by founding "BRIC" which is an odd grouping initially of Russia, China, India, and Brazil, later adding on South Africa. This gets more attention even though it doesn't really do more than a conference. But its existence distracts the media from the reality of how Brazil is as much a US ally as Canada, Germany, or France while it helps push India away from improving relations with the United States which would be devastating to Russian geopolitical interests. Every article about "BRICS" is an article which does not focus on the reality that the United States has mutual protection pacts with more countries than any other country in history.

The BRICS grouping was originally invented by Jim O'Neill, who was a member of David Cameron's cabinet, and a supporter of Brexit. Yet another coincidence.

Now most Americans didn't immediately notice how the Bush Administration was massively harming one of America's closest alliances, the media did not report on the repeal of the farm worker visas which led to illegal immigration supplying our labor force instead of through legal channels, to Mexico finally saying to hell with you and leaving one of our two most important multilateral defense pacts.

Neither would anyone necessarily suspect anything more than that.

But then we fast forward to the end of the Bush Presidency and NATO and the European Union is expanding eastward as one democracy after another joins both organizations. America's defensive capabilities are significantly expanded, the world is more free, and things are looking positive for the future in general.

The next two countries applying to join NATO are Ukraine and Georgia. They were going to be the fourth and fifth former Soviet Republics to join the alliance, and for some reason for Putin its fine if Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania join NATO, but not Ukraine or Georgia. Merkel is the main actor who prevents their accession, likely due to covert threats of cutting off natural gas which Germany is dependent on, and both countries fail to get unanimous support to join the alliance.

At the very end of the Bush administration becomes the first time in decades when Europeans need to get visas in order to visit the United States, another blow to our close diplomatic relations with countries on the peninsula.

Obama did not realize what was going on. He was brainwashed into talking about a "pivot to Asia" by his advisors, which meant that the United States did not work on fixing the issues in Europe which were created by the Bush administration. Pivot to Asia funny enough did not mean building US-Indian relations however. It was mostly meaningless. European relations were largely ignored, even after the aftermath of the invasion of Georgia. It is now obvious that even if Ukraine and Georgia were not going to be able to join NATO, the United States should have made a multilateral mutual protection pact with GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Armenia, and Moldova) in an effort to counter the obvious aggression Putin was demonstrating in 2008. Bush and Obama failed to do this.

When Ukraine was invaded, instead of recognizing the severity of Putin's actions Obama pushed a stalemate which sacrificed three regions of Ukraine to Russia in perpetuity, laying the stage for the current ongoing war.

For decades London has been one of Russia's favorite locations for money laundering, given how the United Kingdom has relatively lax laws on the issue. In 2014 the European Union passed a set of laws meant to detect and eliminate money laundering in the organization, and since the United Kingdom was a member state of the European Union, London banks would be subject to such laws. As soon as the counter money laundering regulations were passed, Russian assets Nigel Farage, Keir Starmer, and David Cameron started to push for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union. They essentially used Bush's playbook by blabbering on about immigration, "illegals", crime, sovereignty, and a bunch of other nonsense which was never threatened by being a member state of the European Union, when in reality I believe that it was about the cleaning up of London banks the whole time.

Each of these events in recent history have strengthened Russia at the expense of the United States. The failure to finish the job in Afghanistan and not properly move Afghanistan towards a government which works for the people has increased Russia's geopolitical strength in Asia. The Iraq War strengthened Netanyahu's control of Israel while diverting American resources. The weakening of the Rio Pact by Mexico resigning from the alliance has pushed Latin America away from the United States. BRICS is a mostly meaningless distraction which creates a lot of anti-American propaganda, which is its main focus. The UK leaving the European Union has maintained London as a preferred route for dirty money to move between Russia and the rest of the world. American media worrying about Russian nuclear bombs raining down on New York has convinced the Biden administration that fully supporting Ukraine would be devastating.

Any one of these events alone looks rather tame, but when you string it all together you start to notice that the Republican Party has been working hard on weakening America's relations with countries around the world for the last 25 years to Russia's benefit.

It started with pushing Mexico away from the United States.

The way to counter this is to call it out and do the following actions:

  • Support Ukraine all the way to a full military victory.
  • Improve relations with Mexico, starting with the resumption of farm worker visas and culminating with them rejoining the Rio Pact.
  • Ukraine and Georgia join NATO.
  • The United Kingdom rejoins the European Union.
  • The United States and the European Union abolish eVisas and resume visa-free travel.

This is how we can significantly weaken Russia by reversing their actions over the last 25 years and build a more peaceful world for the future.

Sunday, November 24, 2024

Education, Corruption, Democracy, Wealth

The hypothesis is straight forward, the relationship between education, corruption, democracy, and wealth.

Income

Almost no countries have been able to achieve a high income without at least 10 years of schooling. This is critical to developing a developed economy.

All high income countries have low corruption.

Most high income countries are democratic.

Most countries with a high level of press freedom are wealthy, and vice versa, but this relationship is weaker than the others.

Mean Years of schooling

Countries which are less corrupt are better educated.

The connection between democracy and education is weaker than the connection with corruption.

The connection between press freedom and education is present, but weak.

Corruption

Less corrupt countries are more democratic. There are some exceptions of undemocratic countries which score well on corruption, mostly rentier states in the Middle East. There are no highly corrupt highly democratic states.

Less corrupt countries have more press freedom.

Democracy

Democracy and press freedom are unsurprisingly correlated.

 

It is clear there is correlation between these factors, what matters now is directionality.

I don't think it is necessarily one way or the other. I think typically countries will fight both corruption and improve democratic reforms at the same time.

As a country is under a period of democratic transition, let's take Georgia for instance because its one of the best examples, the government will work on anti-corruption probes as elections become more free and fair. As the Saakashvili government worked on anti-corruption probes and reforms which mirrored those of the United States in the late 19th century they also made democratic reforms as Georgia continued to progress on social metrics.

As Saakashvili fought corruption and eliminated burdensome red tape Georgia's economy was one of the fastest in the world.

Which is why when Zelensky was elected in Ukraine Putin saw him as a major threat. If Zelensky had been allowed to succeed in mirroring the progress in Georgia in rooting out corruption and developing their economy it would lead Russians to ask... why not us? That is why Ukraine was invaded as soon as Putin saw an opening in 2022.

In practice it is not a question of whether a government should pass democratic reforms or crack down on a corruption... the real way to succeed is to do both at the same time. While implementing democratic and anti-corruption reforms, make sure to defend yourself with strategic alliances to deter invaders who will feel threatened.

That is where Georgia and Ukraine were stopped by Angela Merkel, almost single handedly.

Georgia and Ukraine had the advantage that they already had a high level of education.

If you are a country in Latin America where mean years of schooling lag, you have to do that at the same time. Focus on keeping people in school through high school, penalize truancy, and that will lead to your economy developing. Latin American countries are democratic now with only a few exceptions. The remaining challenge for them in their development is to continue improving their education and increase high school graduation rates.

So let's take a country for example... let's say Guatemala. The average Guatemalan has only 5 years of education, makes $4000 per year, corruption is high, and their democracy score is 4 out of 10 where 10 is perfect. What should Guatemala do?

Based on my research the first thing is for the Guatemalan government to mimic the corruption probes which Georgia did in the 2000s. 

  • Prosecute corrupt officials. 
  • Children need to stay in school longer. Seek out foreign aid for the education system and redirect public resources from corrupt gifts to stimulate the education system.
  • Slash red tape which does not serve the purpose of protecting workers or consumers from danger.

If they do this then they will have a more prosperous economy and a more free society.

Potential Schengen members

 

Potential Schengen members based on corruption, press freedom, and democracy:

  • ·      Australia
  • ·      Botswana
  • ·      Canada
  • ·      Chile
  • ·      Costa Rica
  • ·      Cyprus
  • ·      Ireland
  • ·      Jamaica
  • ·      Mauritius
  • ·      Namibia
  • ·      New Zealand
  • ·      Norway
  • ·      South Africa
  • ·      Switzerland
  • ·      United Kingdom
  • ·      United States
  • ·      Uruguay

If we add in GDP per capita as a requirement:

  • ·      Australia
  • ·      Canada
  • ·      Chile
  • ·      Cyprus
  • ·      Ireland
  • ·      Japan
  • ·      New Zealand
  • ·      South Korea
  • ·      United Kingdom
  • ·      United States
  • ·      Uruguay

If we add in Homicide as a requirement:

  • ·      Australia
  • ·      Canada
  • ·      Chile
  • ·      Cyprus
  • ·      Ireland
  • ·      Japan
  • ·      New Zealand
  • ·      South Korea
  • ·      United Kingdom

 

Once Bulgaria and Romania have full membership, these countries fulfill all 6 metrics:

  • ·      Australia
  • ·      Canada
  • ·      Chile
  • ·      Cyprus
  • ·      Ireland
  • ·      Japan
  • ·      Mauritius
  • ·      New Zealand
  • ·      South Korea
  • ·      United Kingdom

The only country which will become a theoretical candidate when Romania and Bulgaria join on January 1st is Mauritius.

Only two countries fulfill only 5 metrics, the United States, and Uruguay. The United States and Uruguay have homicide rates above the minimum in Schengen.

Andorra is missing data for corruption and democracy, but it certainly could become a member of Schengen if it wanted to.

Singapore’s press freedom and democracy indices are below standard for the European Union, but the other 4 metrics are in line with the European Union. No other country is in this category.

The reality is there is a strong correlation between corruption, press freedom, democracy, income, and homicide rates. When a country starts to impact one lever, the other metrics will respond. Particularly when it comes to corruption and democratization. When countries democratize and crack down on corruption, the economy improves, inequality drops, and homicide drops.



What the trends show clearly is that Democracy + low corruption + a high level of education = wealth. With more press freedom comes a longer life expectancy. Latitude makes no significant difference.

Friday, November 22, 2024

Online maps reviewed

The most famous maps of course are Google Maps and Google Earth. Google Earth has so many amazing features, the historical imagery, streetview, topography... Google Earth is one of the greatest maps ever made.

But Google lacks detail in many ways. There are many paper towns on the map for anti-theft reasons, and borders are often misplaced. OpenStreetMap solves this problem with the most accurate borders of EEZ I have ever found. OpenStreetMap has the advantage that if there is any mistake, you can go in and fix it. It is 100% open source, so their base map can be used for whatever project you want to start. The biggest downside is it does not have satellite imagery.

Google Earth and OpenStreetMap together provide you lacking nothing in terms of features.

Apple Maps is good as well, it is only available to people with Apple devices however. Anyone can use Google or OpenStreetMap on any device.

When it comes to historical atlases there are three main contenders:

Geacron is the one I have been using the longest, and it is a good project. But it lacks detail.

OldMapsOnline is similar, it has links to historical maps on their website, but still lacks detail.

OpenHistoricalMap however has the ability for anyone to add as much detail as they want. It is the only service which anyone can edit at any time for any reason. I believe with enough volunteers OpenHistoricalMap will become the greatest historical map in history.

Saturday, November 16, 2024

Brightline, a model for the future

Timeline:

  • 1976: Conrail founded from the remnants of Penn Central and Erie Lackawanna Railway
  • 1994: Privatization of British Rail began under RailTrack
  • 1997: Privatization of British Rail completed
  • 1999: Privatization of Conrail
  • 2002: RailTrack failed and Network Rail was founded with a monopoly on British railways
  • 2005: Brightline West proposed
  • 2008: S-Bahn Mitteldeutschland call for tender
  • 2012: Brightline Florida announced plans to start operation on track they already owned
  • 2013: S-Bahn Mitteldeutschland begins operating 802 km of service
  • 2018: Brightline Florida starts operation in Greater Miami
  • 2023: Brightline Florida starts operation to Orlando, all on track they already owned
  • 2028: Brightline West plans to begin operation

 

Conrail lasted for 23 years and it was profitable when it was discontinued.

RailTrack lasted for a full 5 years of independent operation before it failed.

It took Brightline Florida 11 years to start operating on track they already own.

It will take Brightline West about 23 years to go from going out to bid to being in operation.

It took S-Bahn Mitteldeutschland 5 years to go from being out to bid to being in full operation with 802 km of service.

Private monopolies do not work.

Wednesday, November 13, 2024

DOGE

No alt text provided for this image

So Trump and Elon Musk are going all-in on DOGE, or "Department of Government Efficiency" to make a smaller government. What does this mean?

  • Cutting police budgets and streamlining police to better serve their communities
  • Eliminating wasteful visas and reinstating an era of visa-free travel
  • Making American TSA work like airport security in the EU
  • Visas for farm workers
  • eFile for income tax
  • Audit the Department of Defense
  • Faster border crossing for everyone.

Lol, no. He's talking about cutting government spending. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/doge-elon-musk-department-government-efficiency-trump-b2646246.html

This likely has nothing  to do with government efficiency, this has to do with cutting social welfare programs.

The biggest expenditures of the government in the current budget year are outlined in the Fiscal Year budget.

Most financial outlays are mandatory, which mostly means Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. Discretionary spending is 50% Department of Defense and 10% Department of Veterans Affairs.

What it will actually be is likely:

  • Defunding NASA which is a competitor to Elon Musk
  • Reducing funds for free school lunches
  • Restricting Medicaid
  • Cutting Social Security OASI benefits
  • Cutting Medicare benefits

All other remaining programs make up such a small percentage of the budget they are unlikely to make any difference to the federal deficit.

Don't fall for the memeification of right wing blabber.

DOGE is a scam. It's Donald Trump's brand.

Monday, November 11, 2024

Shifty and Untrustworthy

  

People read establishment politicians as shifty and untrustworthy. Here are a few reasons why:

  • Biden promised to support Ukraine while holding back aid.
  • He claimed to care about human rights in Gaza but did not withhold weapons from Israel as they violate international law.
  • Biden swore that when we withdrew from Afghanistan the Taliban would not come to power, but they did anyway, and we were not prepared to stop them.

Is there any wonder why millions of Americans perceive Biden as untrustworthy?

Biden promised unity. What that means in practice is supporting the filibuster as Manchin and Sinema, members of his own caucus, watered down his bill. Is there any wonder why he is seen by millions of Americans as shifty?

When New Democrats and Republicans work together to bring down progressive policies, they are feeding the narrative that there is an establishment working to undermine the working class in America.

Ultimately we need ranked voting and to abolish the electoral college.

But for now we just need to ensure the Democratic nominee is not a New Democrat or worked under a New Democrat like Al Gore, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and Kamala Harris. None of whom won their elections.

We need a more progressive candidate in 2028. Not just in terms of policy but in terms of character and strategy.

The Biden strategy of "Unity" failed. Trump will be president in 2028. He only united America against himself.

The Biden strategy of appealing to a theoretical middle voter worried about nuclear war failed to garner votes. He failed to win the war in Ukraine. He failed to protect Afghani women and girls.

This needs to be the last failure of the New Democrats.

We cannot afford another term of a President like George W. Bush.

Trump is going to repeal as much of Biden's accomplishments as he can, most of which are executive orders. New Democrats are likely going to work with Trump in their shared hatred of the New Deal and love of oligarchy. They have always been wolves in sheep's clothing. It's time to recognize those swine for who they are.

Stop throwing your pearls before swine.

Vote progressive.